Buffalo Bills 2026 NFL Season Preview, Betting Markets, Odds, Picks & Predictions
It felt like the 2025 NFL season was falling into place for the Buffalo Bills. With the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens faltering and missing the postseason, the door was wide open for the Bills to finally get over the hump and seriously put themselves in a position to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history. The offense was firing on all cylinders, finishing third in EPA per play, per Sümer Sports, with Josh Allen delivering another strong individual season that landed him third in MVP voting one year after winning his first-ever MVP award.
The Bills were viewed as almost certain to be playing in the AFC Championship Game for the third time in six seasons. Instead, they were surprisingly knocked out of the Divisional Round—for the fourth time in six seasons—by the Denver Broncos in a 33-30 overtime loss as Allen and the offense turned the ball over five times. The Broncos were an excellent team and not someone to be taken lightly, but for many, this felt like the Bills’ season to break through the glass ceiling. When, in actual fact, the loss had major ramifications for the Bills’ short- and long-term future.
The Bills moved on from long-time head coach Sean McDermott, who coached the team to a 98-50 record and five division titles in nine seasons. The feeling inside the building was that McDermott’s iteration of this team just didn’t have the right stuff to get over the line, and a change was needed for both sides. Surprisingly, though, instead of an outside hire, the Bills looked inward, promoting offensive coordinator Joe Brady to the team’s new head coach. Brady spent three years as the Bills’ offensive coordinator, and in that time the offense finished in the top three in EPA per play every season.
Of course, it helps to have one of the two or three best quarterbacks in the NFL, a kick-ass run game, and a mauling offensive line, but Brady has still done well to build the right scheme and ecosystem for the offense to succeed. This offseason, the Bills added some much-needed talent and depth at wide receiver, trading a second-round pick for veteran Bears’ receiver D.J. Moore and adding Connecticut receiver Skyler Bell in the fourth round of the 2026 NFL Draft.
You can bet on the Bills’ offense being competent as always, but a little more squinting is required in order to see the vision on defense—even if the signs are promising. McDermott’s unit finished 14th in EPA per play in 2025, and former Broncos’ passing game coordinator Jim Leonhard is tasked with giving the unit a new lease of life. The Bills signed former Dolphins’ edge rusher Bradley Chubb to a three-year, $52 million contract in the offseason. Chubb can be a force multiplier, but didn’t look at his best in 2025—a year after suffering a torn ACL.
The Bills are in desperate need of finding another difference-maker on the defensive line, though, so Chubb must hit the ground running. The defense will have a host of new rookie faces too—including second-round pick T.J. Parker, who will also look to make an impact off the edge—and that burst of youth could help push the defense in the right direction. The 2026 season will prove to be a pivotal one for first-year head coach Joe Brady.
2026 Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds
The Bills are still one of the top Super Bowl contenders in the NFL, even if there’s an indication that 2026 could feel like a transitional year. Their current odds to win the Super Bowl are +1000, second only to the Los Angeles Rams. If that doesn’t scream Super Bowl contender, then nothing does. With one of the best quarterbacks in the league, a perennial MVP candidate in Josh Allen, the Bills have as good a chance as any team to lift the Lombardi trophy in 2026, but the NFL isn’t as much of a quarterback-driven league now as it was four or five years ago. The Seattle Seahawks proved that in 2025.
The Bills have to be more than just Allen. They need their wide receivers and pass-catchers to step up, the running game to keep dominating, and, importantly, a new edge on defense with Leonhard calling the plays. There’s enough talent across the board, and the front office will truly believe that this is still a team that can win a Super Bowl, even if the last few years may have deflated their enthusiasm.
Bet: Yes
2026 Buffalo Bills AFC Championship Odds
If the Bills want to compete in the Super Bowl, they’ll need to do something they’ve failed to do in the Josh Allen era, and something they haven’t done since 1993: They’ll have to win the Conference Championship. The Bills have lost twice in the AFC Conference Championship with Allen under center. Not so surprisingly, both of those losses came to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been the gatekeepers for the Bills’ playoff hopes in recent seasons—they’ve supplanted the Bills in four of their trips to the postseason in the Allen era. With the Chiefs taking a step back, the Bills’ pathway again feels reachable. They’ll still have to contend with the likes of the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and Houston Texans, but they’re currently second-favorites to win the AFC at +510, just behind the Ravens.
Bet: Yes
2026 Buffalo Bills AFC East Odds
The Bills’ five-year monopolization of the AFC East came to an end in 2025 at the hands of the New England Patriots. For five years, the Bills waltzed to the division crown, averaging 12 wins a season while putting forth their candidacy for contendership. That contendership never got to the final stage, but the Bills were always a lock for the division until last season. However, as good as the Patriots were in 2025, the Bills enter the season as the clear favorites for the AFC East at -125. The improvements on offense and the hope that the defense can be a hit under Jim Leonhard are enough to put the Bills back on top. Beating the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins should be a breeze, but the Patriots are still going to be a tough proposition. However, the Bills are favorites for a reason. They can get the job done.
Bet: Yes
2026 Buffalo Bills Win Total Odds
Since the 2020 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs with 72 regular season wins, the most in the NFL during that span. Though the success hasn’t metastasized into postseason triumph, the Bills just know how to win games in the regular season. They’ve been able to lean on Allen and the explosive offense with intermittent bursts from the defense, and as long as Allen is under center, the Bills will find ways to win. Having a top five offense in the NFL is a cheat code for regular season success, and with their win total sitting at 10.5, the Bills will likely surpass that mark once again.
Bet: Over
2026 Buffalo Bills To Make The Playoffs Odds
There are very few guarantees in life, and the Buffalo Bills making the playoffs doesn’t fall into that bracket. However, the team’s current streak of seven successive trips to the postseason is the longest in franchise history, and there’s little evidence to suggest that it’ll change. The AFC is the host of many strong teams led by excellent quarterbacks, which makes the playing field difficult for the Bills, but Allen is one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, the Bills have an elite offense, and Jim Leonhard should have the defense playing harder. Even as the Patriots continue to ascend, and fringe teams like the Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers make cases for potential Super Bowl runs, the Bills still belong in the pantheon of great NFL teams right now. It would be nothing short of a total shock if the Bills failed to reach the postseason, and it could only feasibly happen if the ever-present Allen misses time. It’s too expensive to bet on, however.
Bet: No
2026 Buffalo Bills MVP Award Odds & Contenders
- Josh Allen
- James Cook
The natural MVP candidate for the Bills is Josh Allen. The herculean quarterback is a former MVP and has finished in the top five of MVP voting in each of the last four seasons, and enters the 2026 NFL season as the frontrunner for the MVP award at +550. Allen can do it all. His accuracy continues to grow year after year; he has a cannon arm that can fit balls into any window, and his rushing ability makes him the prototype for dual-threat quarterbacks. Except the list of NFL quarterbacks built like him is short. Allen is built like a linebacker and can barrel his way through opponents, or use his shiftiness to drift past them. His raw stats are exceptional, and Allen has added 41 rushing touchdowns in the last three seasons. He’s a one-of-one quarterback. His backfield teammate James Cook could be a long-shot darkhorse, too. He led the NFL with 1621 rushing yards in 2025 and is behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines again.
Bet: Josh Allen
2026 Buffalo Bills Schedule
- Week 1 – at Houston, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 2 – vs. Detroit, 8:15 p.m. (TNF) – APVO
- Week 3 – vs. LA Chargers, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 4 – vs. New England, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 5 – at LA Rams, 8:15 p.m. (MNF) – ESPN
- Week 6 – at Las Vegas, 4:25 p.m. – CBS
- Week 7 – BYE
- Week 8 – vs. Baltimore, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 9 – at Minnesota, 8:15 p.m. (MNF) – ESPN
- Week 10 – at NY Jets, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 11 – vs. Miami, 1:00 p.m. – FOX
- Week 12 – vs. Kansas City, 8:20 p.m. (SNF) – NBC
- Week 13 – at New England, 4:25 p.m. – CBS
- Week 14 – at Green Bay, 8:20 p.m. (SNF) – NBC
- Week 15 – vs. Chicago, 8:20 p.m. – CBS
- Week 16 – at Denver, 4:30 p.m. – Netflix
- Week 17 – at Miami, 1:00 p.m. – CBS
- Week 18 – vs. NY Jets, TBD
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Photo Credit: REUTERS
