Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview (9/24/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins will be taking on their Florida rivals, the Gardner Minshew-led Jaguars. The Dolphins have fallen just short in two straight games against the Bills and Patriots. Meanwhile, Minshew and the Jaguars have surprised many by not only almost beating the Titans but by also taking down Phillip Rivers on the Colts in his first game. Both teams will be hungry for a victory, so tune into the battle of The Minshew Mustache vs The Fitzpatrick Beard this Thursday Night.
For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Page.
Date: Thursday, September 24th, 2020
Time: 8:20 PM ET
Location: TIAA Banks Field – Jacksonville, Florida
TV Coverage: NFLN (NFL Network)
Dolphins vs. Jaguars Live Stream
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Miami Dolphins : B. Jones (Groin) Q, P. Williams (Knee) Q, C. Fejedelem (Pectoral) Q, X. Howard (Knee) Q, S. Lawson (Hip) Q, D. Parker (Hamstring) Q
Jacksonville Jaguars: D. Chark (Chest) Q, T. Davis (Knee) Q, B. Linder (Knee) Q, B. Watson (Illness) Q
Miami Dolphins Analysis
The Miami Dolphins are most likely going to be sticking with Ryan Fitzpatrick despite the 0-2 start. While the offense has been disappointing, they will have a much, much easier matchup after two extremely hard weeks against the Patriots and Bills. Meanwhile, the defense looks as solid on the field as it does on paper.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Devante Parker, and Preston Williams have not been the most lethal trio up until this point. While Parker’s assignment of CJ Henderson will not be easy, he will be relieved to not have to go up against another top 5 CB like Tre’Davious White or Stephon Gilmore. I think that this is the week both Parker and Williams break out and Fitzpatrick has another classic game. With the way Jacksonville’s offense has been playing against good defenses this will be a massive key to victory. Parker and Williams will need to be hitting the deep ball and keeping pace with Minshew.
One other way to keep up with Jacksonville will be to control the clock by rushing the ball on the ground. However, Miami has failed to hit 100 yards rushing in either of their matchups. Again, Jacksonville’s defense will be much easier to play against and maybe Miami can rely a bit more on Gaskin’s and Breida’s rushing ability to get chunk yardage. This would be a nice bonus, but I see this game really being won in the air with big plays.
Defensively, Miami has looked extremely solid. The one thing they will need to do in this game that they have somewhat failed to do is generate pressure. The secondary was roasted by Stephon Diggs; however, I put that on Josh Allen having too much time to throw over Xavien Howard, or Bryon Jones’ coverage ability. The secondary and pass rush will be tested again with a mobile Minshew and a deep WR core of DJ Chark, Keelan Cole, and Laviska Shenault.
This team is built to stop the run, and in both games, they were able to hold the opposing running backs to inefficient numbers. The only person who has had success running on this front 7 is the QB. The LB core needs to make sure that this does not happen with Minshew, the front 4 will need to keep containment. If they can force Jacksonville into passing downs the hope is that they will be able to generate pressure.
Miami Dolphins Depth Chart
Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis
Gardner Minshew and his WR core look ferocious. Against two good defenses in Indianapolis and Tennessee, Minshew has already put up 6 TDs, 512 yards, and only two INTs. On top of this he is getting the ball spread around to the likes of Chark, Conley, Cole, and Sehnault. Jacksonville looks like the surprise team so far in 2020 sitting at a 1-1 record against two playoff hopeful opponents.
The Miami secondary might be the toughest test yet for this offense as they face off against Xavien Howard, Byron Jones, and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene. However, the pass rush should not be as intense as he saw through the first two weeks. Minshew will be looking to have another big game and will need to simply beat his opposing number for Ryan Fitzpatrick. I imagine that this game will produce a few more deep shots to Chark as Minshew will hopefully have a bit more time in the pocket.
James Robinson, the rookie out of Illinois State, impressed massively in the game against the Titans and will be leaned on to once again carry the ground game against an average rush defense, in the Dolphins. If he can repeat his performance of over 100 yards and 6+ yards per carry then I think that I have to tilt this game to go in favor of the Jaguars. Chris Thompson saw a snap increase Sunday and did great catching the ball out of the backfield, a tactic that can work well against Miami’s defense. Look for both of these RBs to have decent numbers in the passing game.
Defensively, Tre Herndon and CJ Henderson will be the men responsible for guarding Preston Williams and Devante Parker. When looking at the defensive side of the game for the Jaguars, I would say that this is the key matchup of the game. If these two corners can win versus Williams and Parker then Miami will struggle mightily to drive the ball down the field. The other threat for Miami in the air is Mike Geiskici who has lined up out of the slot and TE, it will be interesting to see who ends up covering him on his routes, whether it will be Myles Jack, Joe Shobert, or even DJ Hayden as a cornerback. Regardless, whoever covers him needs to be prepared to face loads of targets and an athletic freak.
The front 4 of Jacksonville has looked okay, much better than most anticipated after trading away so many stars like Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell. The first round combo of Josh Allen and Taven Bryan has been the key to this success. However, when pass rushing both need to perform better and get those pressures up far past what we saw in the first two games. This will make it easier on the secondary. Meanwhile, Myles Jack and Joe Shobert did a supreme job of supporting those front 4 in the run game on Sunday versus Derrick Henry, and that support will be helpful once again against Gaskin and Breida.
Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart
Betting Corner Jacksonville -2.5
Spread: JAX -2.5
Moneyline: MIA +115 | JAX -135
Spread: JAX -2.5
I think that Miami is better than most people think and that actually makes this game an extremely tough choice. However, I am going to go with Jacksonville due to Minshew. I think that Fitzpatrick makes a mistake and one of the more talented players on the Jags makes a play to tip the scales in favor of the Jaguars. I also think that the passing game out of the backfield with James Robinson and Chris Thompson is another place that the Jaguars get the edge that pushes them over the top to victory.
Close game Jacksonville take it 27-20
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Daily Fantasy Picks
Ryan Fitzpatrick at $5,300 could be an incredible play this week in the full Thu-Sun slate play on DK. You are not going to find a better priced starting QB, especially in a plus matchup, all year long. Using him with a Devante Parker stack who is priced at $5,900 or even a Preston Williams stack at $4,400 could leave you with ridiculous lineups if these plays hit.
Myles Gaskin is the best priced RB in this game at $4,800. He was splitting carries with Matt Breida last game and averaged 6.6 yards per carry as well as 7 targets. The Jacksonville defense will not be as stout as Buffalo’s and he could easily come out of this game with 15+ points, especially if he can find the endzone.
Mike Gesicki at $4,900 is the last play that I like for value. He also could be a good choice for a Fitzpatrick stack. He has averaged 18 points in his first two games and played tons of snaps out of the slot as well as the TE position. Jacksonville does have some solid coverage LBs, but do not be scared, similarly to Darren Waller, there is no LB or safety who can shut down Gesicki.