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Best Bet: OM -5.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Missouri 28
The Pick: Ole Miss 34, Missouri 28
We’ll side with Ole Miss’ spread based on various data points especially when the Rebels are home favorites.
Game Betting Analysis
This is a difficult one to call, but considering Ole Miss has seen at least one team score 32 points or more in all five games this season, the Over isn’t a bad look. We’ll focus on the ATS market, though, with a lot of Ole Miss data to consider. The Rebels win at home and in Mississippi, winning outright in 15 straight within the state and covering six straight home games vs AP ranked schools. Ole Miss also holds a 6-4 ATS mark as a home favorite and a 8-4 ATS mark against other SEC schools. The Over isn’t a bad look either with the Over hitting in six of nine games against AP ranked schools with an 8-4 Over lean against conference foes. However, Ole Miss has hit in Under in nine of 10 games played in Mississippi and is 0-2 at home to the Under this season. Ole Miss has also gone Under in seven of 10 home games as a favorite. So while Ole Miss points have been flying high this season, we have more conviction the Rebels simply covering at home.
Missouri-Ole Miss Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Missouri’s Nation-Leading Pass Rush vs. Ole Miss’s Perfect Red-Zone Offense
No. 13 Missouri (5-1, 2-1 SEC) travels to Oxford as an underdog despite riding one of the best defenses in the country, built around a pass rush that leads the SEC and ranks 2nd nationally per PFF grading (87.7). The Tigers have allowed just 78.3 rushing yards per game (8th in the FBS) at 2.4 yards per carry, racked up 18 sacks (3.0 per game), and surrendered only two rushing touchdowns all season, giving Eli Drinkwitz’s unit an overall PFF grade of 91.2, fourth-best in the SEC. Missouri’s offense isn’t an afterthought either — running back Jamal Roberts leads the SEC with 828 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, while quarterback Austin Simmons (64.8% completion, 1,434 yards, 14 touchdowns, just 1 interception) and receiver Cayden Lee (an SEC-leading 616 yards and 42 catches) give the Tigers real balance. Both Simmons and Lee carry extra motivation into this one — they’re former Ole Miss players now trending toward available, each listed probable after appearing on this week’s injury report, setting up a built-in revenge-game subplot against the program that developed them.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, counters with the most explosive and efficient offense Pete Golding has fielded since taking over as head coach in November 2025, scoring 38.8 points per game and, most strikingly, finding points on all 20 of its red-zone trips this season, 18 of them touchdowns. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has built a legitimate Heisman case, completing 70.1% of his passes for 1,435 yards, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while piloting an attack that averages 433.8 total yards per game. The No. 9 Rebels’ defense is the clear question mark, allowing 28.0 points and 392.4 yards per game, numbers that will be tested against a Missouri offense already boasting multiple SEC statistical leaders. Ole Miss gets a bit of its own good injury news, with several depth pieces trending toward available, but the Rebels will still be missing starters across the lines and secondary, including safety Edwin Joseph, who is out after ankle surgery. If Missouri’s nation-leading pass rush can get consistent pressure on Chambliss and crack the red-zone perfection that’s defined Ole Miss’s season, the Tigers’ balanced attack behind Simmons and Roberts gives them a real shot to leave Oxford with the road upset; but if Chambliss and that offense keep finishing drives at their current rate, Ole Miss’s firepower should be enough to escape with the win and cover at home.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: SECN, ESPN+
- Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium – 53 ppg; 0-2 O/U
- Conference: SEC
Best Bets for College Football Week 7
- Ole Miss -5.5 (-105)
- Over 58.5 (-108)
Key Players
Missouri
- QB, Austin Simmons — Last Game: 14/28, 147 yards, TD, INT
- RB, Jamal Roberts — Last Game: 34 carries, 222 yards, 2 TD
Ole Miss
- QB, Trinidad Chambliss — Last Game: 20/30, 213 yards, 3 TD, INT
- WR, Deuce Alexander — Last Game: 5 catches, 74 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
