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Best Bet: BYU +10.5 (-105) at Hard Rock Bet
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 31, BYU 21
The Pick: Notre Dame 31, BYU 21
We’ll side with BYU’s spread based on multiple data points for the Cougars.
Game Betting Analysis
This is tricky, with data going all over the place. BYU is a perfect 5-0 on the ATS this season, 11-4 ATS when coming off a win and 6-0 ATS when facing non-conference opponents. However, BYU has seen the favorite cover 11 straight games as well, meaning Notre Dame would get that nod instead. However, the ATS data is much more shaky with Notre Dame who is just 8-6 ATS off a win and just 3-4 ATS as a road favorite. The Under has hit in three straight meetings, while BYU has gone Under the total in seven straight games against Top 15 AP ranked schools. Notre Dame is, though, 4-2 to the Over this season while going Over in five of seven road games as a favorite. We’ll stick with the double-digit spread for the home underdog ranked Top 10 nationally.
Notre Dame-BYU Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Notre Dame’s Breakout Freshman Running Back vs. BYU’s Backfield Without LJ Martin
No. 2 Notre Dame (6-0) travels to Provo as roughly a 10-point favorite over No. 8 BYU in a genuine top-10 showdown, and the Irish have both elite quarterback play and a surprising new offensive weapon driving the attack. CJ Carr has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country, completing 70.8% of his passes for 1,378 yards, 16 touchdowns and just 1 interception, ranking 4th nationally in QBR (89.0) and sitting third in Heisman odds. The bigger development might be at running back, where true freshman Jonaz Walton has stepped in seamlessly for departed star Jeremiyah Love (now with the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals) and been electric, averaging 7.9 yards per carry with a 97-yard touchdown run among his 409 yards, including 301 yards combined over his last two games. Notre Dame’s offense ranks 2nd nationally by SP+ and in the top 10 in net adjusted EPA per play, with a rushing success rate (33.8%) that ranks 4th in the country — a dangerous combination against a BYU defense that has struggled badly against the run (77th nationally in EPA per rush allowed).
BYU, meanwhile, arrives unbeaten at 5-0 and perfect against the spread this season, but the Cougars will be without their best offensive weapon: running back LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year with more than 1,900 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns since the start of last season, is out. That shifts the load almost entirely onto quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who has quietly been excellent in his own right, completing 66.4% of his passes for 1,033 yards, 8 touchdowns and just 1 interception while adding 239 rushing yards and 4 more scores on the ground — he ran for 109 yards and threw for 329 in BYU’s last outing against Iowa State. Without Martin to control the clock and keep drives alive on the ground, BYU’s offense becomes almost entirely dependent on Bachmeier playing a near-flawless, dual-threat game against a Notre Dame defense that will be well-rested and well-prepared for exactly that scenario. If Bachmeier can replicate his recent form and carry BYU’s offense largely by himself, the Cougars have enough to keep this top-10 showdown within the number at home; but if Notre Dame’s rushing attack keeps rolling behind its freshman revelation and Martin’s absence forces BYU into one-dimensional, Bachmeier-or-bust football, the Irish should be able to pull away and cover on the road.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC, ESPN+
- Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium – 49.7 ppg; 1-2 O/U
- Conference: Independent vs. Big 12
Best Bets for College Football Week 7
- BYU +10.5 (-105)
Key Players
Notre Dame
- QB, CJ Carr — Last Game: 14/20, 181 yards, 3 TD; 5 carries, 41 yards
- RB, Jonaz Walton — Last Game: 13 carries, 181 yards, 2 TD
BYU
- QB, Bear Bachmeier — Last Game: 22/30, 329 yards, 2 TD; 9 carries, 109 yards
- WR, Legend Glasker — Last Game: 5 catches, 99 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
