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Best Bets: Teoscar Hernandez , Jackson Chourio , Mookie Betts & William Contreras
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, October 14th
Teoscar Hernandez Home Run Odds
He’s been scorching since late August, hitting .340/.421/.538 with a 165 wRC+ over that stretch, and he already has a home run this postseason. He’s a right-handed bat getting the platoon advantage against Brewers lefty Robert Gasser, who carries a bloated 5.91 ERA across his two career starts against the Dodgers. Hernández has a long track record of doing more damage against left-handed pitching than right-handed, which makes this matchup line up about as well as it can for a hitter in his current form. Gasser’s strong second half (a 1.67 ERA over his final six regular-season outings) came almost entirely against National League Central arms, not a lineup like this one. With the series tied and Milwaukee needing length from Gasser, there’s real incentive for him to pitch around traffic rather than nibble, and Hernández is the hitter in the middle of the order built to make him pay for a mistake. The conditions help too — warm, dry air at Dodger Stadium carries better than the typical late-October night game in LA.
Jackson Chourio Home Run Odds
He launched a two-run home run off left-hander Robbie Ray in NLDS Game 1, direct evidence he isn’t troubled by same-handed pitching the way some young right-handed hitters are early in their careers. He closed the regular season with a strong second half, hitting .309/.391/.526 with a 150 wRC+ in August, and he’s a 20-homer caliber bat for the third straight season. He draws Blake Snell in Game 3, and the matchup comes with real opportunity: Snell is being pushed back for extra rest after looking rusty in the NLDS, and he’s thrown very little recently because of a lingering groin issue. A starter working his way back into form after a physical setback is exactly the profile a dangerous young hitter can take advantage of early in a start. Chourio is a right-handed bat seeing a left-hander who may not have his best command right away. Add in the dry, warm conditions at Dodger Stadium, and Chourio has both the recent track record and the matchup to go deep again.
Mookie Betts Home Run Odds
He closed the regular season on a .337/.438/.674 tear with a 202 wRC+ in September, walking in 15.2% of his plate appearances against only a 10.5% strikeout rate — a sign he’s seeing the ball as well as he has all year. He’s a right-handed hitter who gets the same platoon edge against Gasser that makes Hernández attractive, and unlike a lot of Dodgers regulars, Betts has shown no late-season dip in power. He’s historically been a strong performer in high-leverage October moments, and Game 3 of a tied series on the road qualifies. Gasser’s career history against the Dodgers (5.91 ERA in two starts) suggests he hasn’t solved this lineup even in limited exposure. Betts doesn’t need a mistake pitch to drive the ball out — his bat speed and contact quality let him do damage on pitches many hitters can’t. With warm temperatures and no rain in the forecast, there’s nothing in the environment working against him either.
William Contreras Home Run Odds
He hit the go-ahead solo home run off Padres left-hander Adrian Morejon in NLDS Game 1, proof that left-handed pitching isn’t an obstacle for him from the right side of the plate. He’s a switch-hitter with three home runs in just 19 career postseason games, a track record that shows he shows up in the moments that matter most. His underlying performance has been trending up all year — his August on-base percentage jumped to .340 after a .245 mark in July, and he strung together seven multi-hit games in that stretch, including a four-hit effort. He draws the same rusty, rebuilding Snell that makes Chourio appealing, a left-hander who hasn’t had a normal pitch count or routine in weeks because of a groin issue. Contreras has the switch-hitting flexibility to attack Snell from the side that suits him best, and he’s already proven this October he can do exactly what this pick requires.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
