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Best Bets: William Contreras , Junior Caminero , Yandy Diaz & Garrett Mitchell
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB World Series HR Best Bets for Friday, October 23rd
William Contreras
He’s been Milwaukee’s most dangerous bat all postseason, hitting .375/.444/.750 (1.194 OPS) with two home runs over the NLDS against San Diego before adding a fifth career playoff homer against the Dodgers in the NLCS, a mark that ties Jackson Chourio for the most postseason home runs in franchise history. He’s a right-handed hitter who posted 18 home runs and a .758 OPS in the regular season, and he lines up against Nick Martinez, who has actually allowed a slightly higher OPS (.705) and more home runs per plate appearance to right-handed hitters (9 HR in 303 PA) than to lefties this year, with an overall hard-hit rate allowed of 32.9% and a fly-ball rate of 29.5% that gives contact a real chance to carry. Add in a Game 1 start at American Family Field, Milwaukee’s own ballpark that ranks 11th-most homer-friendly in baseball, and a red-hot Contreras getting a true home-field, home-run-conducive setting against a pitcher who hasn’t shut down righties any better than lefties, and this is as good a spot as he’ll see all series.
Junior Caminero ,
He led the Rays with 42 home runs this season on a .276/.360/.524 line (.884 OPS) over 616 at-bats, making him Tampa Bay’s clear top power threat. He’s also a right-handed hitter, which matters a lot here: Misiorowski has been nearly unhittable against lefties this year (.114 AVG, .378 OPS, 6 HR allowed) but far more hittable against righties (.209 AVG, .314 SLG, .582 OPS, 8 HR allowed), and his hard-hit rate allowed sits at 33.3% with a 24.4% fly-ball rate. American Family Field also carries a HR park factor of 105, ranking 11th-most homer-friendly of the 29 parks with recent data, and with the late-October Milwaukee forecast likely forcing the retractable roof closed for this 8 p.m. ET start, the ball should carry in a climate-controlled, neutral environment rather than facing any cold-air drag.
Yandy Diaz
He hit 22 home runs in the regular season (.293/.370ish, .805 OPS) and has been the hottest hitter in the sport over the last two weeks, homering four times this postseason including the eighth-inning, 111.9-mph blast off a hanging changeup that sealed Tampa Bay’s ALCS-clinching win. Like Caminero, he benefits from the same righty-vs-Misiorowski platoon edge, and he’s shown he can do damage against secondary stuff left in the zone, which lines up well against a young power arm who’ll be throwing in his first World Series start under the brightest lights of his career.
Garrett Mitchell
While his 11 regular-season home runs are modest next to Contreras’s total, his underlying Statcast profile says the power is real: a 52.7% hard-hit rate, an 11.7% barrel rate, a 93.2 mph average exit velocity and a 115.5 mph max exit velocity this season, all of which point to a hitter capable of doing more damage than his counting stats show. He’s left-handed, and Martinez has actually been a bit stingier against lefties (.659 OPS, 13 HR in 419 PA) than righties, so this isn’t the platoon-driven case Contreras’s is, but Mitchell’s raw exit-velocity numbers are strong enough on their own to profile as a threat against a pitcher who still owns a below-average 32.9% hard-hit rate allowed, and he gets the same home-park and home-field comfort boost at American Family Field to open the series.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
