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Best Bet: O54.5 (-117) at bet365
Score Prediction: NC State 31, Stanford 24
The Pick: NC State 31, Stanford 24
We’ll try the Over based on numerous data points which includes both school’s 2026 betting statistics.
Game Betting Analysis
The Over seems to be the play based on the betting data for this one. NC State enters this game with a 4-2 O/U record on the season, Stanford entering at 5-2 to see a combined 9-4 record favoring the Over. The Cardinals have seen three of their four home games this season go Over the total, while NC State has hit the Over in seven of eight road games against non-AP ranked schools. Also looking at both team’s ATS markets, they’re terrible. The Cardinal have failed to cover five of seven games this season while NC State has dropped four of six spreads as well. NC State has lost six straight road games outright along with failing to cover those games. We’ll stick to the statistical agreement which is the Over.
NC State-Stanford Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: NC State’s Efficient Passing Attack vs. Stanford’s Sketchy Secondary
NC State enters this one 3-3 overall and 1-2 in ACC play, coming off a bye following a 38-14 loss to Wake Forest, but quarterback CJ Bailey has been markedly more efficient than that record suggests, posting a 72-plus QBR in four of his last five outings and an adjusted completion rate north of 77.1% over his last three games, numbers that have the Wolfpack ranked 37th nationally in pass success rate (47.6%) and scoring 31-plus points in three of their last four FBS games on the way to 33.0 points per game overall (57th nationally). That attack lines up against a Stanford pass defense that allows the eighth-most passing yards per game in the nation (255.4) while ranking outside the top 115 in EPA allowed per pass and sitting as the only Power Four program with fewer than five sacks and fewer than five interceptions all season, meaning the Cardinal can neither pressure a quarterback nor take the ball away. Against a unit that generates neither takeaways nor negative plays through the air, Bailey’s efficient, high-completion approach is built to pile up explosive gains and carry NC State to a cover as a 6.5-point road favorite.
Stanford, meanwhile, is in genuine freefall, averaging just 18.3 points per game (121st nationally) against 36.6 allowed (134th), a defense that also ranks 127th in overall success rate, 134th in early-down EPA, and 137th in third-and-fourth-down success rate, with an SP+ ranking of 111th overall; its only ACC win this season came over Georgia Tech, and its most recent result was a 34-7 decision over FCS Elon that did little to address those underlying numbers. The counterweight is that NC State’s own defense is far from stout, ranking 124th nationally in net EPA per play and 133rd in EPA allowed per pass while surrendering 27.7 points per game (86th), and if Stanford’s offense can find enough rhythm through the air against that unit, the Cardinal have a conditional path to keeping this one inside the number and cashing as 6.5-point underdogs, even as Bailey’s efficiency edge points to NC State pulling away on the scoreboard.
Game Information
- Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN, ESPN+
- Venue: Stanford Stadium – 54.3 ppg; 3-1 O/U
- Conference: ACC
Best Bets for College Football Week 8
- Over 54.5 (-117)
Key Players
NC State
- QB, CJ Bailey — Last Game: 28/39, 241 yards, TD
- WR, Keenan Jackson — Last Game: 5 catches, 61 yards
Stanford
- QB, Davis Warren — Last Game: 27/39, 279 yards, TD
- RB, Micah Ford — Last Game: 19 carries, 179 yards, 4 TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
