NBA First Basket Pick Today (Oct. 28): Tyler Herro

Ok so maybe we did get a little cocky after being up 4 units through three games. That’s ok. Sometimes, it’s good to be humbled by life. I feel like I’m back to reading the board with clear eyes (if I ever was). We’re still up on the season.

For tonight’s pick, we’re going to the most interesting sporting event happening in Milwaukee tonight — Bucks vs. Rockets. I love Tyler Herro at odds to score the first basket in tonight’s game.

Why Tyler Herro for First Basket

So credit, or lack thereof, where it is (or isn’t) due, Tyler Herro hasn’t scored the first basket in any game this season. That said, he’s been a primary feature of the Bucks’ offense, scoring 34 points against Chicago, 24 at Washington and 23 on 7-of-14 shooting against Indiana. Even his 13-point dud in Philly came on 14 shots. He doesn’t need a set play to get a look; a high pick-and-roll with Myles Turner is enough to free up his pull-up.

Now the price. At +650, sportsbooks are projecting Herro to be the first basket scorer 13.3% of the time. Herro takes 19.8% of Milwaukee’s shots, and that number is watered down by the minutes he spends on the bench. To open the game, with the starters on the floor and the ball in his hands, his share of the Bucks’ first looks should be well above that. Add a Houston team that has won the opening tip in three of four games but turned it into the first basket only once, and there’s a real path to Herro clearing that 13.3%. At this number, I’ll take the Bucks’ primary scorer to get it done. One unit on Tyler Herro to score the first basket.

NBA First Basket Picks Tracker

For more on how the NBA first basket market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.