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Our Teaser: Falcons +7.5 (teased from +1.5) + Chiefs -2.5 (teased from -8.5) + 49ers -1.5 (teased from -7.5) (3-Team 6-Point Teaser, +140)
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
The Teaser: 3-Team Breakdown
Leg 1: Falcons +7.5 (teased from +1.5)
Even with Caleb Williams potentially making his return from injury, negative regression is still looming large over the Chicago Bears while matched up against an Atlanta Falcons defense that ranks near the top of the board in Dropback EPA Allowed per play. While Williams will give the offense more versatility with his running ability if he is able to suit up, the Falcons interior pressure will help contain him in the pocket, forcing the Bears QB to throw under duress, lowering the quality of his passes.
Speaking of regression, the Falcons will have a great opportunity to bounce back after last week’s underwhelming performance against Baltimore by taking advantage of a front seven that struggles to stuff the run per the Bears bottom ten mark in Def Rush DVOA. With Bijan Robinson pulling defensive attention to the middle, the width of Michael Penix Jr’s passing lanes on the outside will widen, making it easier to create explosive plays by throwing over the top of the secondary.
Leg 2: Chiefs -2.5 (teased from -8.5)
Since the hiring of Mike McDaniel, the Los Angeles Chargers offense have fallen off a cliff, limping into Week 7 ranked dead last in EPA per play. Justin Herbert has been abysmal in McDaniel’s system, plummeting down to 28th in Success Rate and 30th in CPOE while completing less than 60% of his passes.
Unfortunately for Herbert, his struggles in the pocket are poised to persist in a divisional matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs while trying to weave the ball through a secondary that resides in the top-15 in Def Pass EPA. The Chiefs front seven also generates pressure at a high rate, making it difficult for Omarion Hampton to break through the trenches, leaving the Chargers vulnerable to stalling out early on in their drives.
Leg 3: 49ers -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Since the start of the regular season, the San Francisco 49ers have been in a tier of their own on offense, comfortably leading the league in Off DVOA and in EPA. Even with his wideouts dealing with injuries, Brock Purdy has been able to brush aside regression, jockeying with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson for first in QB EPA per play.
In a favorable matchup against Washington, Purdy will be able to build on his momentum by picking apart a secondary that underwhelms in coverage per the Commanders below league average mark in Dropback Success Rate. When forced to stretch out in coverage, Christian McCaffrey will have more room to work with in the middle, leading to a higher volume of Yards After Contact once he blows past the line of scrimmage.
NFL Week 6 Teaser Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Original Line | Teased Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bears @ Falcons | Falcons +1.5 | Falcons +7.5 |
| 2 | Chargers @ Chiefs | Chiefs -8.5 | Chiefs -2.5 |
| 3 | Commanders @ 49ers | 49ers -7.5 | 49ers -1.5 |
3-Team, 6-Point Teaser: +140 — a $100 bet on this teaser pays $240 total ($140 profit).
Why This Teaser Hits
When it comes to betting on teasers, steaming a team through the key numbers of three and seven optimize your chances of covering. Kicking things off with Atlanta, grabbing the Falcons at +7.5 gives us security to help avoid getting burned in a highly volatile contest with the uncertainty of Williams altering the trajectory of the game.
Turning our attention towards Kansas City, the Chiefs are fresh off a bye and firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball, putting them in a great position to rout the Chargers who have struggled to find their footing on offense. With the Chargers quietly hovering in the top half of the board in Def EPA, we minimize the risk of getting back doored in a potential defensive slugfest by locking in the Chiefs under the key number of -3.
To wrap things up, we cap off the teaser with San Francisco who will be able to consistently get into scoring position by attacking a Commanders secondary that lacks the coverage that is needed to smother the 49ers star studded group of skill players. With Purdy setting a scoring pace too fast for Washington to keep up with, the Commanders will stay outside the number, leading to a lopsided affair.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
