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Best Bets: Vikings () , Browns () & Dolphins ()
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Best NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread
- Vikings ()
- Browns ()
- Dolphins ()
Minnesota Vikings () vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are now 2-4 and coming off a miserable home loss to the Tennessee Titans that led to general manager Chris Ballard being fired. Now, the team heads on the road to take on the league’s most ferocious defense, the Vikings.
The Vikings lead the NFL in quarterback pressures per dropback (36.7%), and opponents convert third downs at the lowest rate (22.2%). Against pressure, Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled, completing 47.2% of his passes for 393 yards (5.5 yards per attempt), zero touchdowns, and two interceptions.
The Vikings’ problem has been their offense, which ranks 22nd in points (21.8), 12th in rushing yards (116), and 29th in passing yards (167) per game. Fortunately, they’re coming off a bye week at 5-0, and a big part of picking the Vikings here is trusting head coach Kevin O’Connell and quarterback Kyler Murray to get on the same page.
This week, they’ll face a Colts defense that primarily plays Cover-3. This season, against this coverage, Murray has completed 66.7% of his passes on 51 dropbacks. Last season, on 109 dropbacks, he completed 70% of his passes.
Cleveland Browns () vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are coming off their best game of the season, downing the Colts 26-20. Even so, they’re tied for the fewest points per game in the NFL, with just 14. Now, they face a Browns team that may not have a record-breaking offense but its defense will give Titans quarterback Cam Ward problems.
For starters, the Browns are third in the NFL in pressures with 98. For comparison, the Titans are 28th with just 64. When pressured this season, Ward has completed just 17 of 45 passes (37.8%) on 65 dropbacks for 149 yards (3.3 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Since his rookie season, he’s completed 40.8% of his passes for 968 yards (4.7 yards per attempt), four touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
So, in his second season, he’s actually playing worse against pressure so far. On top of that, the Browns play man coverage more than any other team. When facing man coverage, Ward has completed 51.9% of his passes for 117 yards (4.3 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, and one interception.
To go even further than that — and yes, it’s an extremely small sample size of just 12 dropbacks — when pressured and facing Cover-1, Ward has just six passing yards. The Browns defense will create plenty of problems for Ward, and this alone will give the Browns a 2-point or more win.
Miami Dolphins () vs. New York Jets
Fresh off a bye and 0-5, the Dolphins head to East Rutherford, New Jersey, to take on the Jets as 4.5-point underdogs. Even if the Jets win, this team is laying 4.5 points, which is a lot. In fact, the line opened at 5.5 and has quickly dropped to 4.5.
To start, the Jets don’t have an offense that I’m going to rely on to cover a 4.5-point spread. They’re 27th in points (18.7), 23rd in rushing yards (94.5), and 23rd in passing yards (196.2) per game. The Dolphins rank worse than the Jets in all those categories except rushing. The Dolphins are ninth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (126.6).
The Jets have struggled against the run this season, allowing 123 rushing yards per game, including 158.7 per game over their last three. The key to the Dolphins’ offense will be running the ball. Their quarterback, Malik Willis, has had virtually no success through the air, so his legs, along with Ollie Gordon, will be key. He’s scored in three straight games and is averaging nearly 7 yards per carry over his last 27 totes.
On the passing side, though, Willis will have another weapon at his disposal, with rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas more likely to play this week. On top of that, the Jets are dealing with numerous injuries, including Joseph Ossai, Kiko Mauigoa, Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, and more.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
