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Top TD Picks: Mason Taylor , Tyler Higbee
It’s time for the Sunday afternoon Week 7 slate, so we’re going to zone in on two anytime touchdown props. In honor of National Tight Ends week, we’re taking two tight ends that come at nice values. The first is an unheralded second-year tight end and the other is a veteran who is forced into an expanded role due to injury.
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With that in mind, find out why I’m on Mason Taylor and Tyler Higbee. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
Mason Taylor (Jets vs. Dolphins) Touchdown Odds
Mason Taylor is a second-year tight end who put up 44 catches for 369 yards and one touchdown in his rookie season. These numbers don’t exactly jump off the screen, but we have to remember that Taylor was a reasonably touted prospect who was selected in the 2nd round. Tight ends take time to develop, so we can’t rule out Taylor emerging as a competent target for the Jets.
What’s notable is that Taylor has been overshadowed by first-round rookie Kenyon Sadiq. This isn’t surprising, as Sadiq was considered the better prospect. He’s a more athletic tight end who can win downfield. We saw that when he put up big numbers vs. the Lions earlier this year. However, at the moment, Taylor is running more routes than Sadiq. Taylor has 57.1% and 60.6% route participation in the last two weeks, while Sadiq is at 22.9% and 36.4% during that stretch.
The matchup is a good one against the Dolphins, who are allowing 76.2 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. We saw TJ Hockenson cause major problems for them earlier in the year. At longer than +400 odds at the time of this article, Taylor looks like a viable longshot play. As an added bonus, his father, Jason Taylor, played for the Dolphins for several seasons, so there’s a bit of extra motivation to find the end zone.
Tyler Higbee (Rams vs. Raiders) Touchdown Odds
Davante Adams is facing an extended absence up to 10 weeks, so the number-two target role is wide open for the Rams. With Tyler Ferguson still sidelined due to injury, Tyler Higbee is in line for a lot of looks in a projected shootout against the Raiders. We’ve seen Higbee have some big games this season, including eight catches for 62 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos.
On top of that, Puka Nacua is dealing with a calf injury. Even if he plays, there’s a chance that he can be limited here. That could put Higbee in a spot where he’s peppered with targets in a must-win game for the Rams, fresh off a disastrous loss at home vs. the Cardinals.
At +200 odds to score a touchdown, Higbee’s price is a bit inflated because of his expanded role, but I still think it’s worth taking. The Rams should be able to move the ball vs. the Raiders, with Higbee likely looking at 6-7 targets.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
