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Our Teaser: Bengals +7.5 (teased from +1.5) + Packers +9 (teased from +3) + Chiefs +8.5 (teased from +2.5) (3-Team 6-Point Teaser, +140)
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
The Teaser: 3-Team Breakdown
Leg 1: Bengals +7.5 (teased from +1.5)
While the offense has hogged the spotlight, the Cincinnati Bengals defense have gone under the radar, entering Week 7 ranked in the top-10 in Dropback EPA Allowed per play. The addition of Dexter Lawrence has also helped the Bengals stuff the run at a higher rate while hovering in the top half of the board in Def Rush Success Rate. With the defense finally giving the offense the production it needs to be a well rounded unit, the Bengals are able to reduce the amount of variance in their contests on a weekly basis.
Even if Lamar Jackson is able to make his return from injury, the Baltimore Ravens QB will struggle to shake off the rust while weaving the ball through narrow passing lanes, leading to an uptick in his total number of Turnover Worthy Plays. The Bengals pressure in the interior will also plug Derrick Henry’s running lanes in the trenches, making it difficult to reach the second level while fighting off contact behind the line of scrimmage.
Leg 2: Packers +9 (teased from +3)
After a slow start to the year, Jordan Love has been able to break out of his slump, climbing into the top-15 in QB EPA per play, CPOE, and in Success Rate while averaging 9.1 Air Yards per throw. Even with the offensive line struggling to give him the protection he needs to operate in a clean pocket, Love has been able to ward off pressure and connect with his pass catchers at a high rate.
Heading into Sunday’s highly anticipated matchup against Detroit, Love will be able to continue to thrive by throwing over the top of a secondary that struggles in coverage per the Lions near dead last marks in Def Pass DVOA and in EPA Allowed per play. With Josh Jacobs back on the field, Love will also receive the versatility he needs from his backfield to turn the offense into a dynamic unit, making it easier to stay ahead of the sticks.
Leg 3: Chiefs +8.5 (teased from +2.5)
After winning the Super Bowl last year, Sam Darnold has fallen hard back down to reality while dealing with a leg injury, plummeting to 29th in QB EPA per play. Darnold’s regression has harshly affected the Seahawks offense as a whole, limping into Sunday ranked 24th in Off DVOA.
Unfortunately for Darnold, his struggles in the pocket are poised to persist against the Kansas City Chiefs while battling it out against a secondary that resides near the top of the board in Coverage Grade and in Success Rate. With the Chiefs creating disruptions at a high rate, Darnold will struggle to move the ball through the air, making the Seahawks vulnerable to stalling out before they get into scoring position.
NFL Week 7 Teaser Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Original Line | Teased Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bengals @ Ravens | Bengals +1.5 | Bengals +7.5 |
| 2 | Packers @ Lions | Packers +3 | Packers +9 |
| 3 | Chiefs @ Seahawks | Chiefs +2.5 | Chiefs +8.5 |
3-Team, 6-Point Teaser: +140 — a $100 bet on this teaser pays $240 total ($140 profit).
Why This Teaser Hits
Even when possessing key advantages to help stay within the number, adding security to the original spread increases your chances of covering. The Bengals, for example, are more than capable of neutralizing the Ravens offense, yet one broken run from Jackson or Henry can put the original spread in jeopardy while sitting under the key number of +3.
While the Packers are currently listed at +3, the Lions high powered offense will force them to play in a highly volatile track meet, drastically altering the trajectory of the game when on the wrong end of a bad bounce. Even with Love more than capable of matching the Lions output, steaming the number to a two score spread gives us more room for error in a high scoring affair.
To round out the card, not only has Darnold struggled to recapture the same success he had last year, the Seahawks ground game has also fallen down to 30th in Rush EPA after Kenneth Walker departed for Kansas City. In a defensive slugfest, securing as many points as you can get is vital, improving the Chiefs probability of covering.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
