Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (1/14/23)

The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys have played each other eight times in the postseason. It’s one of four playoff matchups that’s happened that many times, and will be the first to make it to nine editions when the two teams take the field in Dallas this Sunday. Ahead of the game, let’s dig into some Cowboys vs. Packers odds, picks and predictions below as our best bet is over 50.5 points.

Packers vs Cowboys Prediction

When two of the league’s most iconic franchises meet in the postseason, all eyes are immediately drawn to the matchup. This clash between the Packers and Cowboys will be no exception, with a heavy dose of 90s nostalgia for longtime fans of the game. However, while this game is absolutely steeped in history, the present-day versions of these two teams provide plenty of excitement all on their own.

The Packers seem to have possibly won the quarterback lottery once more. After three decades of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love is the man in Green Bay and he’s done an excellent job down the stretch. In addition to steering the Packers back into the postseason after a dismal start to the year, Love has rebounded well enough to finish the year with an impressive 32 touchdown passes, and just a one interception in the last eight weeks.

As for the Cowboys, the days of leading with the ground game and an elite front five are over; this team’s offense is all about airing it out and skill position greatness. Dak Prescott has played like a top-three quarterback this season by all measures, ranking second in PFF’s passing grade. Dak led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes — well clear of Love in second place — and threw just nine interceptions after topping the league with a career-worst 15 last season.

He’s not alone either as WR CeeDee Lamb has had a phenomenal year with 1,749 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns on 135 catches. Second-year tight end Jake Ferguson also had a break out year and has cemented himself as a viable second option. The team’s offensive metrics tapered towards the end of the season, but they should have absolutely no issue shredding an imploding Packers defense, which finished 26th in the NFL in DVOA against the pass.

The Dallas defense grades considerably better, but it’s slowed down as well. They rank just 22nd in EPA against the pass since week 12 as wear and tear have taken their toll. The Cowboys should be fine in this one in terms of the end result, and especially in the postseason, nobody on the field cares about margin of victory; this time of year, survive and advance is the name of the game. However, as bettors, we certainly should care, and pulling away from a red-hot Packers offense enough to cover a spread of over a touchdown.

Instead, let’s invest in the over. Both offenses should have an edge in this one, and while many games this week are taking place in cold, Northeastern or Midwestern conditions, this one is not only in Dallas, it’s indoors. With controlled conditions, two passing attacks with momentum, and floundering defenses, expect a fun, high-scoring battle between these traditional NFC powers.

Packers vs Cowboys Prediction: Over 50.5

Packers vs Cowboys Best Odds

The Cowboys are favored by just over a touchdown at home, with the spread set at 7.5 points. They’re a hefty -375 on the moneyline, compared to an even +300 for the Packers. As for the total, it’s set at 50.5 points with -110 odds on both sides.

Packers vs Cowboys Key Injuries

The Packers could be without key wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, a real potential blow to their offense, while Dallas cornerback Stephon Gilmore picked up a knock in the regular season finale against the Washington Commanders.

Packers vs Cowboys Key Matchups

This will be a pass-heavy game, with both offenses looking to take advantage of -vulnerable secondaries.

Cowboys Air Offense vs. Packers Pass Defense

Prescott and Lamb definitely combine to make up the heart and soul of this Dallas offense, but they’re not the only key contributors. Even beyond Ferguson, the speedy Brandin Cooks has the ability to stretch the field to open things up, and even hit the occasional big play; he scored eight times this year, and secured 11 catches of 20 yards or more.

After inexplicably trading Rasul Douglas to the Buffalo Bills, the Packers don’t really have much of a counter for Lamb. Jaire Alexander is back after spending plenty of the season out of the lineup, but he hasn’t exactly been at his best, and will have a tough time matching up with the Cowboys’ top wideout. Key safety Rudy Ford is out, leaving opportunities for Dak to take the top off of this highly mediocre secondary.

Packers Air Offense vs. Cowboys Pass Defense

Green Bay’s passing offense is actually all the way up to fourth in the NFL in DVOA, a tremendous accomplishment after ranking around average throughout most of the first half of the season. Love has taken a big step up, Love’s rise has coincided with that of rookie wideout Jayden Reed, who set yardage career highs in each of his past two games.

The Dallas pass defense is still in the top-10 by most metrics, but they’re trending in the wrong direction after sitting even closer to the top throughout the early stages of this campaign. Cornerback DaRon Bland has had a real breakout year, with nine picks and an outrageous five touchdowns, but his partner in crime, Stephon Gilmore, is a bit banged up. Surprisingly, despite the efforts of the transcendent Micah Parsons, the Dallas pass rush is essentially average, as guys like DeMarcus Lawrence have been solid but not otherworldly.

Packers Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Duke Johnson
RB2: Myles Gaskin
LWR: Jaylen Waddle
RWR: DeVante Parker
SWR: Albert Wilson
TE1: Mike Gesicki

Cowboys Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Kyren Williams
RB2: Cam Akers
LWR: Van Jefferson
RWR: Ben Skowronek
SWR: Lance McCutcheon
TE1: Tyler Higbee

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