What Is NRFI?

NRFI (often pronounced “nerfy”) stands for no runs first inning. It’s exactly what it sounds like — betting that the opening frame of a baseball game ends scoreless. And what can be better than cashing a bet within the first 15 minutes of a Major League Baseball game?

NRFI betting has become quite popular as sports betting spreads across the country. It’s a favorite of influencers and touts. The NRFI bet combines two of the most addictive feelings in sports betting: a constant sweat with every pitch, and the potential for instant gratification. Read on for how to bet NRFI lines and strategies that can work.

What is NRFI?

Here is more on what is NRFI along with some examples.

Again, winning a NRFI bet requires a scoreless first inning. Not top of the first, mind, but the entire inning. Finding the NRFI line generally involves checking the game props for a specific matchup under the MLB odds markets. Find the “Innings” or “1st Inning” tab on some online betting sites.

Not all sportsbooks offer the NRFI line. At DraftKings though, the NRFI line is the first bet under “Popular.” The same goes for Caesars, which sometimes offers boosted odds on NRFI parlays.

The NRFI line will sometimes appear as Over/Under 0.5 runs. The juice is generally determined by the game’s total. That’s because that is exactly what NRFI and YRFI (yes run first inning or “yerfy”) are — derivatives of the game total. In a game with a high total, bettors might get plus odds on the NRFI bet. In a game with a low total, they’ll have to pay some juice, or sportsbook vig.

Here are a couple of examples to show the NRFI price from games with high and low totals from April 1 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Brewers/Mets (Over/Under of 7.5): +100 YRFI/-135 NRFI
• Yankees/Diamondbacks (Over/Under of 9.5): -155 YRFI/+115 NRFI

As one can see, the first-inning over/under line depends heavily on the game total.

The juice can also vary significantly from book to book. Make sure to shop around for the best line before placing your bet.

NRFI Betting Strategy

The first place most people will look before placing an NRFI bet is the starting pitcher matchup. Obviously, stronger starting pitchers make an NRFI bet more attractive. They don’t allow as many runs, and therefore they usually won’t allow as many runs in the first inning.

That’s obvious. However, be aware that this is generally priced into the line. The sportsbooks are fully aware that Chris Flexen is much more likely to allow a first-inning run than Spencer Strider, and they’re going to try to price the options accordingly.

Quality Of The Top Of The Batting Order

Every team endeavors to place its best hitters at the top of the batting order. The reasoning is obvious: each successive spot in the order receives fewer at-bats over the course of an MLB season. Giving more ABs to your best hitters is good business practice because it should lead to more runs.

Naturally, then, that means most offenses are most dangerous in the first inning. So, while it can seem like a pretty safe bet that you won’t see a run in the first inning (it’s hard to score in baseball!), that’s usually far from true.

However, some offenses pack an inordinate amount of their punch into the top of the lineup before tailing off from there. For example, look at the San Diego Padres. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. wouldn’t look out of place hitting in the top four of basically any lineup in baseball. Aside from them, though, Ha-Seong Kim might be the only guy who even cracks the top nine for half of MLB rosters.

In other words, San Diego projects to score a greater share of their runs with the top of the lineup than most MLB teams.

But even bad MLB lineups like that of the White Sox have good professional hitters at the top of the order. Nobody would bat an eye if Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, or Andrew Vaughn drove in a run. And that’s what NRFI bettors are hoping to avoid.

Keep in mind that while the top of the order represents the best chance for an offense to score, most pitchers are generally most effective earlier in the game. Later in games, when they’ve tired and the opposing batters have become familiar with their pitches, they usually perform worse.

Pitch-Type Leaderboard

Pitch-type databases can help bettors find positive matchups for certain pitchers.

For example, Charlie Morton will saddle up for another (final?) season in Atlanta. As the 40-year-old hurler has advanced in years, he has leaned more and more on his outstanding curveball. He throws it more often than his fastball these days. If Morton faces a lineup that’s weak against curveballs, that may make for an attractive opportunity on a NRFI bet.

Conversely, if Morton faces a top-of-the-order in which the hitters tend to hammer curveballs, bettors may do well to avoid a NRFI bet. To take it a step further, they can try to figure out whether the YRFI side has any value.

Time Of Day/Ballpark

In some cases, the time of day and the ballpark may help the NRFI side of a bet.

Most hitters prefer not to have a contrast of shadows and the lit portion of the field between them and the pitcher. They say that such effects obscure their ability to pick up the spin on the pitch coming out of the pitcher’s hand.

At certain ballparks, at certain times of day, there may be such shadow effects present on the field. If you buy into the idea that these help the pitcher (there’s no conclusive evidence they do), it may aid your cause on a NRFI bet.

Using A Charts For NRFI Betting

One simple way to bet on NRFI odds is to use a derivative chart and cross-reference the odds.

This strategy doesn’t require any handicapping, only checking the odds and then the chart to see if the numbers indicate any value. Because the YRFI/NRFI line is a simple derivative of the game total, one can figure out what the prices “should be” for those based purely on the over/under.

Use this NRFI tool to try to find value in your sportsbook of choice. If you can find a better price than the one in the chart, you should have a +EV bet available. Keep in mind the chart is best used by combining it with the handicapping methods above. That should provide the best results.

Another tool you can use comes from our friends at TeamRankings. This NRFI chart shows how often each team has hit its NRFI throughout the season. It can help you work out some of each offense’s tendencies to score in the first inning.

Best of luck with your NRFI betting this season.