Should You Bet on the Boston Celtics to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
The Boston Celtics were supposed to have a gap year after flaming out in the second round against the New York Knicks last May during their title defense.
Jayson Tatum (Achilles) was not expected to play at all coming into the 2025-26 season and Boston shed salary by moving on from Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. But all the Celtics have done is defy expectations throughout a dominant season under prospective NBA Coach of the Year Joe Mazzulla, with Jaylen Brown playing at an MVP level in the absence of Tatum.
Now Tatum is back to his All-NBA form and Boston is the favorite to win the Eastern Conference at +185 odds, and has the third-shortest odds (+550) win the NBA title, a huge shift from the +6000 preseason odds the Celtics were given to win it all.
Backing them in the preseason would have generated huge value, but is it too late to get in on Boston Celtics futures to win the Eastern Conference and/or the NBA championship?
Boston Celtics to Win Eastern Conference?
The narrative heading into this season was that the Eastern Conference is even weaker than usual due to injuries to Tatum and to Tyrese Haliburton of the defending conference champion Indiana Pacers.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have routinely struggled in the playoffs, the Detroit Pistons are unproven and lack outside shooting, and the Philadelphia 76ers have major question marks regarding the health of their star players. So the Celtics stepped into that void and dominated their conference with the best offensive rating and second-best defensive rating (behind Detroit) in the East.
Despite the ample playoff experience under their belts, the Celtics are behind the Pistons with a 27.4% chance to win the East per Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probabilities page. The ESPN Power Index is even lower on Boston’s probabilities with a 25.4% chance to win the conference, but oddsmakers and the betting public disagree.
Boston is getting odds of +185 or shorter to win the conference ahead of Cleveland (+330), New York (+490), and Detroit (+550) at most books. The Pistons regular season success is not buying as much credibility, especially with Cade Cunningham (lung) uncertain to return at full strength.
Under Joe Mazzulla, the Celtics have the most playoff wins (27) of any team over the past two seasons and the young coach is 15-7 in road playoff games. No other Eastern Conference team can match that track record and no opponent, aside from the Knicks, matches up very well against Boston’s elite pace-and-space offense. The Celtics are favorites for good reason and worth backing with a Futures ticket.
Best Odds: Boston Celtics to win Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics to Win NBA Finals?
As the only Eastern Conference team to win the NBA title (in 2024) over the past six years, the Celtics are an intriguing pick to back against an unknown challenger from the Western Conference.
Most likely, they would meet the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, or Denver Nuggets in the finals. Boston dropped consecutive road tests at the Spurs and Thunder in March, but were missing key guys in both contests and did not have Tatum back to full strength. The Celtics have played some battles with the Nuggets with a 2-2 record over their past four regular season meetings.
The ascendancy of Neemias Queta gives Boston a big body to initially defend against Nikola Jokic or Victor Wembanyama, but size is a weakness on this roster. Boston’s ability to spread the floor on offense could negate the defensive prowess of the Spurs, or out-gun a Thunder team that depends on defense and 2-point shooting to grind out wins.
Despite their incredible metrics, the Celtics have been mediocre in close games with a 5-7 record in one-possession affairs and a modest +4.5 net rating in Clutch situations (the final 5 minutes of games within 5 points).
Getting Tatum back to full speed along with Brown gives the Celtics two All-NBA performers, but could it compromise their chemistry in close games under the brightest lights? That is probably the biggest concern for this loaded roster, but a +600 ticket on the Celtics to win it all is worth a small wager.
Best Odds: Boston Celtics to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Aaron Gash
