Should You Bet on the Denver Nuggets to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
As long as perennial MVP candidate Nikola Jokic is in uniform, the Denver Nuggets are going to be a worthy candidate to win the NBA championship.
Since winning the title in 2023, Denver’s regular season campaigns have been marred by injuries and the Nuggets have suffered consecutive 7-game conference semifinals losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder while dealing with some unfortunate injury issues in those playoff battles.
This year, the Nuggets have added a bit of depth with old friend Bruce Brown back, Peyton Watson ascending to stardom, sharpshooter Tim Hardaway Jr. coming off the bench, and Cam Johnson looking to fit into a role after being acquired via trade.
Denver isn’t necessarily going to be a top seed in the Western Conference playoffs, but nobody will want to see the Nuggets for a series this April or May. Does this group have what it takes to return to the NBA Finals and potentially win the NBA championship?
Denver Nuggets to Win Western Conference?
Jokic was on pace for another MVP award and the most efficient season in NBA history when he suffered a hyperextended knee in late January. The Nuggets stayed afloat without him and actually struggled more upon his return, with an 11-5 record and 117 defensive rating in March.
Missing Aaron Gordon (hamstring) for most of that period is also a factor, yet Jokic clearly hasn’t been up to snuff defensively, and the biggest question for Denver’s playoff success is whether the 7-footer can step up on that end of the floor when the games matter more.
With a 109 individual defensive rating in each of the past two postseasons, Jokic has clearly shown he can hold down that end of the floor. He’s put up some of the best offensive performances in history to terrorize the opposition and the Nuggets offense is even scarier now that Watson (112 offensive rating) is playing well and Jamal Murray is 13th in Player Efficiency Rating, supplementing the most efficient player once again, Nikola Jokic.
Denver is expected to hold at the fourth seed in the West with a decent chance (20.8%) to grab to the third seed and a smaller chance (12.8%) to fall to fifth per Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probabilities page. The ESPN Power Index lists Denver as the best offensive team in the league, but a -0.7 defensive index is the worst among playoff teams.
Given Denver’s recent playoff success on both ends in all-out battles with Minnesota and OKC, we trust this team to step up on that end in potential playoff matchups. Jokic has played well against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, and owned the Los Angeles Lakers in recent matchups. Denver is worth a wager at +650 odds to win the West.
Best Odds: Denver Nuggets to Win Western Conference
Denver Nuggets to Win NBA Finals?
Nobody in the Eastern Conference can deal with Jokic on a consistent basis. Denver has only gone 18-12 against the other conference in each of the past two seasons, but we covered the Nuggets ability to rise to playoff scenarios. When they reached the NBA Finals in 2023, Bam Adebayo was unable to slow down Jokic, and there are few better defensive centers in the league.
The Boston Celtics would be a tough matchup for Denver given their toughness on the wing an 3-point shooting. The New York Knicks smoked the Nuggets in Denver after the All-Star Break, but the Nuggets would likely be favored in a finals matchup against either team.
Sportsbooks aren’t quite doubling Denver’s odds to win the title (+1100) relative to their odds to win the West, because the latter task is arguably more difficult from the fourth or fifth seed in a loaded conference. Betting on the Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets as the exact finals matchup would generate +1800 odds.
If it all comes together and Denver is able to run through the Western Conference again, toppling Oklahoma City and other juggernauts along the way, the Nuggets will present good value as a Futures bet to win it all.
Best Odds: Denver Nuggets to Win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/David Zalubowski
