Should You Bet on the Houston Rockets to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Expectations remained high for the Houston Rockets even after point guard Fred VanVleet suffered a devastating ACL tear during the preseason. With Kevin Durant added to a prolific defensive team, the Rockets have a potential key to unlock their offensive struggles in close games.
Durant has been fantastic during another All-NBA campaign, but the Rockets have fallen short of projections and will likely enter the NBA playoffs as the fourth or fifth seed in the Western Conference.
Team chemistry has been a notable issue with Durant criticizing his new teammates at times, leading to stunted returns from rising stars Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun in this system. Losing massive center Steven Adams (ankle) to a season-ending injury led to a minor collapse in the construction of their roster.
Houston could draw a wounded Los Angeles Lakers team in the first round and potentially build confidence before the matchups get tougher. So, are the Rockets worth backing as a longshot to win the Western Conference or the NBA Finals?
Houston Rockets to Win Western Conference?
The Rockets have been inconsistent offensively all season and are 21-22 with a -9.2 net rating in clutch games (the final 5 minutes of games within 5 points). That being said, they’ve flashed potential in the toughest matchups with wins over the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
Most of the young players on Houston’s roster got great playoff experience during a 7-game series loss to the Golden State Warriors last April. They’ve been through battles and have an intense head coach in Ime Udoka, who led the Boston Celtics to the NBA Finals in 2022.
Amen Thompson is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA and a good matchup for reigning MVP and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Rockets have no specific answers for Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs, but Durant gives them a good shot to create offense from the perimeter.
Houston could certainly win a first-round series to set up a showdown with the Thunder or Spurs. The Rockets (-500) are certainly implied to do so. And it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see either of those second-round matchups go 6 or 7 games with the Rockets showcasing their toughness while leaning on Durant’s clutch scoring.
Beating either of those teams is considered a relative long shot with Houston at +650 to reach the WCF Finals. The Rockets (+2200) have the fourth-shortest odds to win the conference, but are well behind the Thunder, Spurs, and Denver Nuggets on odds boards for good reason.
Best Odds: Houston Rockets to win Western Conference
Houston Rockets to Win NBA Finals?
What if everything clicks for this team when the lights are brighter and the games slow down more?
The Rockets have discovered a couple of unique lineups with Reed Sheppard providing excellent shooting, or Tari Eason slotting into a huge lineup that can give opposing wings fits. The matchups could break right and Houston could make a run through the Western Conference.
If they can navigate that minefield, the Rockets would certainly present tremendous value at 55/1 to win the NBA title.
Potential matchups against the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, or Detroit Pistons would likely be slower and lower scoring than most Western Conference matchups and that could play into Houston’s hands.
That all being said, this team hasn’t been consistent on either end of the floor since losing Adams in January and their offense has been a consistent concern. The Rockets are not worth backing to win the NBA Finals this year. But next year could be a different proposition.
Best Odds: Houston Rockets to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Karen Warren
