Should You Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Odds and projections have fluctuated wildly on the Philadelphia 76ers throughout the 2025-26 NBA season in no small part due to the continued rollercoaster that is Joel Embiid’s availability. The former MVP has been a monster when active this season, but managed to play in just 38 games before an unfortunate bout with appendicitis ended his campaign abruptly.
Embiid could return at some point in the playoffs, yet it is far from a certainty, and the Sixers would have to emerge from the Play-in Tournament and likely pull off a first-round upset to give him enough time for a return. Otherwise it will be breakout superstar Tyrese Maxey, older star Paul George, and a young group of role players leading Philadelphia under Nick Nurse.
Every No. 7 seed has managed to emerge from the Play-in Tournament since it began, and the Sixers will have home court for a winner-take-all matchup against the Orlando Magic. If they lose, they will host either the Charlotte Hornets or Miami Heat for the No. 8 seed.
That gives the 76ers potential first-round matchups against the No. 1 Detroit Pistons or the No. 2 Boston Celtics. Could they beat either of these teams in a best-of-7 series, likely without Embiid?
Philadelphia 76ers to Win Eastern Conference?
The 76ers are getting -300 odds to emerge from the Play-in, but are sizable dogs to beat either of the top seeds in the East with +640 odds to make the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Only the No. 10 Miami Heat has longer odds (+1500) to pull off a first-round upset, which might be incorrectly priced.
Philadelphia’s ceiling is significantly reduced without Embiid. Their backup bigs include Adem Bona, Dominick Barlow, and Andre Drummond. The first two are hardly threats on offense and Drummond is one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA at this stage in his career.
Detroit is led by physical center Jalen Duren and has a few certifiable wing stoppers, led by Ausar Thompson. Maxey and George would have a tough time creating consistent offense in that matchup and the Pistons would likely dominate the boards.
Then you have Boston, which is easily the favorite to win the East and has weapons throughout its roster. The Celtics might have the best bench in the NBA and backup center Neemias Queta has emerged as a top-tier big man, who would give Philly trouble without Embiid.
Due to those tough matchups, the Sixers have an 8.3% chance to win a first-round series, which is only ahead of the Heat (1.2%) per projections from the ESPN Power Index.
Betting Philadelphia at +640 to win a series is a longshot and it would likely not be as profitable as betting the Sixers on the spread or taking a few moneyline shots in their first few playoff matchups.
Best Odds: Philadelphia 76ers to win Eastern Conference
Philadelphia 76ers to Win NBA Finals?
What about a scenario where the Sixers stun the Pistons or Celtics and give Embiid enough time to return in early May?
With their star big man, the Sixers are 24-14 and have a 118.5 offensive rating, which would rank fifth in the NBA over the course of a season. Embiid averaged 33 PPG in the first round in his last playoff action in 2024, but hasn’t been a true superstar in the postseason since 2021.
A quality sign for Sixers fans is the team’s performance in Clutch scenarios (the final 5 minutes of games within 5 points). The Sixers are fourth in net rating (+16.6) and lead the NBA in defensive rating (98.6) in the Clutch with George and Kelly Oubre Jr. serving as elite wing defenders. Those guys could match up against Boston’s massive wings and potentially give the New York Knicks or Atlanta Hawks trouble in a second-round series.
Yet there’s a massive gap between hanging with some of the top teams in the conference and winning multiple rounds with a roster that has injury concerns beyond Embiid’s health. Losing their leader in the final week of the season is a massive blow to the Sixers from a momentum perspective, and it’s highly unlikely they pay off a bet at 45/1 to win the conference.
Best Odds: Philadelphia 76ers to win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/Karen Warren
