Should You Bet on the San Antonio Spurs to win the 2026 NBA Finals?
In his third season, Victor Wembanyama has clearly asserted his claim to the throne of best player in the NBA and vaulted the San Antonio Spurs into the realm of NBA Finals contenders.
The Spurs are essentially locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoff picture behind the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder and have a 16.7% chance to win the NBA Finals this year per the Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probabilities page. The ESPN Power Index gives the Spurs a 17.2% chance to win it all, trailing only the Thunder (50.5%) as favorites.
These projections might overweight the Spurs regular season dominance without considering the track record of inexperienced rosters in competitive playoff series.
Do you believe the Spurs are a good bet to win the Western Conference, or the NBA title, in Wembanyama’s third season?
San Antonio Spurs to Win Western Conference?
The Spurs have a 26.6% chance to win their Conference per Basketball-Reference and a 28% chance according to ESPN. While the Thunder stands out as the biggest obstacle in their path, the Spurs are 4-1 this season against that team, including high-profile wins in the NBA Cup and on Christmas Day.
Wembanyama’s defensive prowess is a true game-changer. The 7-foot-5 center has given every NBA offense problems, including the Thunder, so he could take over a series against any opponent. That being said, the Thunder bring an element of physicality that could wear on the skinny young Frenchman over the course of a long series.
Since the start of February, the Spurs are 29-2 with Wembanyama in the lineup. Their losses have come at the New York Knicks and in overtime against the Denver Nuggets in an absolute thriller. They lead the NBA in net rating by a comfortable margin and are 18-3 against teams in the playoff picture overall in that span.
Nikola Jokic has been a problem for Wembanyama and the Nuggets have yet to hit their peak this season. Denver is pushing for the No. 3 spot in the conference, but if the Nuggets wind up fourth, the Spurs would only have to beat the Thunder or Nuggets in the WCF Finals to make it to June.
The Spurs first-round matchup could be the Phoenix Suns or Los Angeles Clippers, two teams that have given them plenty of problems during the regular season. There are no easy matchups on that side of the bracket in the West and the Spurs are frankly not a great bet to win the conference with short +300 odds at most books. Those who want to back the Spurs should strategically wager on their individual playoff games.
Best Odds: San Antonio Spurs win Western Conference
San Antonio Spurs to Win NBA Finals?
If they’re able to slay the Thunder, Nuggets, or whatever other playoff titans lay in wait to prevent a trip to the NBA Finals, would the Boston Celtics or New York Knicks be able to stop the Spurs?
Those Eastern Conference favorites have given the Spurs trouble in regular season matchups due to their length on the wing and ability to spread to the floor, drawing Wemby away from the basket to generate clear lanes to the hoop or corner 3-pointers.
Again, consider the fact that De’Aaron Fox and veteran Harrison Barnes are the only Spurs players with playoff experience. There is almost no precedence in the modern NBA of Teams with limited playoff experience making the NBA Finals. The recent exceptions are the 2021 Phoenix Suns (led by veteran Chris Paul) and 2019 Toronto Raptors with two-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard leading the way. Fox isn’t playing a role on this Spurs team that can compare to those player’s impact. Also consider the fact that Spurs new head coach Mitch Johnson has never called a timeout in the playoffs.
The Spurs are listed at consensus +550 odds to win it all and are not offering as much value as the proven Nuggets (+1200) or the red-hot Celtics (+600) considering their easier path to the Finals in the Eastern Conference.
Best Odds: San Antonio Spurs win NBA Finals
Photo Credit: AP/David Zalubowski
