Get Buccaneers vs. Packers player prop picks & odds for the (12/17/23) matchup
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks
A pair of 6-7 teams battling for an NFC playoff spot are squaring off this Sunday (12/17/23) when the Green Bay Packers play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Packers are coming off a bad loss to the Giants in which QB Jordan Love regressed dramatically from his previous strong performance, while the Bucs are on a two-game winning streak after dispatching the Falcons last week.
Rachaad White over 73.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop line this week is his highest of the season and yet we are still taking the over based on his recent performance and supreme matchup.
The Packers are a run funnel defense. They are very good against the pass, allowing just over 200 yards per game (8th best in the league) and just 5.9 net yards per pass attempt (13th). On the other hand, they are allowing 141.8 rushing yards per game (2nd most) and 4.6 yards per rushing attempt (tied for 5th most).
Their superior pass defense relative to their run defense is also reflected in the volume they have faced against both play types. They have faced the fourth-most rushing attempts per game (30.8) and the 6th fewest passing attempts per game (31.6).
White has been more effective as a pass catcher than as a runner for most of his career, including this season. However, he has started to find a rhythm as a ball carrier over the last few weeks as the Bucs have leaned on him in the ground game.
White is averaging 20 rushing attempts per game and is averaging over 95 rushing yards per game over his last three games. He has gained at least 84 rushing yards in all three games and has two 100-yard games over that span. He is averaging an excellent 4.77 yards per carry in those three games.
The Packers have allowed over 80 rushing yards to an opposing running back in back-to-back games and they have allowed their opponent’s starting RB to surpass his rushing yards prop line in five straight games. They are allowing 86.4 yards per game to their opponent’s leading rusher over the same span. We love the chances that White continues that trend this week.
Jordan Love over 248.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
If the Packers are a prototypical run funnel defense, then the Buccaneers are the exact opposite, funneling opponents away from the run and toward the pass. That should benefit Jordan Love this week, who we expect to have a bounce-back game after a terrible performance last week against the Giants.
Prior to last week, Love was starting to look like the QB the Packers were hoping we would be when they traded Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. Over his previous four games, he averaged 286.5 passing yards per game and his lowest single-game output was 267 yards. He had gone over his passing yards prop line in six straight games before last week.
This should be a great matchup for Love to get back on track. The Buccaneers are 30th in the league in passing defense, allowing 264.1 yards per game. They are also allowing 6.7 net yards per pass attempt, 4th most in the league. On the other hand, they are top 10 in rushing yards allowed (98.8 per game) and 8th in yards allowed per attempt (3.9).
Numbers like that already point towards a good passing day for Love, but the Packers are also banged up in the backfield. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are questionable for this game. Jones has missed three straight games but has a chance to return this week, while Dillon broke his thumb last week and it would be surprising if he plays in this game.
With an unreliable running game and a defense that can be exploited through the air, this should be a high-volume passing day for Love. If that plays out as expected, he should have no problem gaining at least 249 passing yards for the fifth time in his last six games.