The New York Jets (4-7) play host to the Atlanta Falcons (5-6) on Sunday (12/3/23) at 1 p.m. EST in Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season. The Falcons are betting favorites on the road at -2.5 against the spread, while the over/under is set at a meager 34 total points. This article provides Falcons vs. Jets analysis, predictions and betting recommendations and explains why the best bet in this matchup is the Falcons -2.5.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Prediction & Best Bet
It’s not very surprising that the total in this game is so ridiculously low. The Falcons and Jets have been two of the worst offenses in the league this season, while the defenses are both either solid (Atlanta) or very good (New York). Ultimately this game will come down to how these offenses fare, especially the Jets, which looked no better with Tim Boyle under center last week than it did with Zach Wilson.
The Falcons have finally started looking competent offensively by doing the unthinkable: getting the ball to their best player. Bijan Robinson has had two of his best and most active games of his rookie season in his last two games, with 19+ touches, 100+ yards from scrimmage and at least one TD in each game.
Assuming the Falcons continue to lean on Robinson this week, they should be able to find enough success against the Jets’ defense to win and cover in this game. We have very little confidence in the Jets doing much of anything offensively. They will be reliant on their defense and special teams to create some big plays and provide short fields and scoring opportunities. While that is certainly possible, it’s very unlikely it will be enough to win the game.
After a big division win over the Saints last week, Atlanta is back in first place in the lowly NFC South and has plenty of motivation to continue building momentum this week. While it’s hard to trust a team that has been so inconsistent, it’s even harder to trust the Jets right now. Take the Falcons and lay the 2.5 in this matchup.
We would also lean toward the under in this game, but at such a low number that is not the most playable option, so we prefer the Falcons against the spread as the best bet in this game.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Prediction & Best Bet: Falcons win 17-13 | Best Bet: Falcons -2.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Betting Odds
ATL @ NYJ
Dec. 03, 12:00 PM
100% of staff picked ATL to cover the spread
Odds updated December 3rd, 2023, at 3:21 pm
The spread in this game has been at the key number of -3 and could reach that again depending on how the money plays out, but it’s currently at -2.5.
The ridiculously low total of 34 is actually trending down after opening at 35 or 35.5 depending on the sportsbook. That is the lowest total of the week and one of the lowest of the season.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Falcons winning 19-16.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Key Injuries
The biggest injury news leading up to this game is that Aaron Rodgers returned to practice this week for the Jets, though it’s expected he’s at least a few weeks away from returning, if he even returns this season. Several other starters were limited this week and are worth monitoring, including RB Breece Hall, LT Mekhi Becton, CB Michael Carter II, and EDGE Will McDonald IV.
The Falcons are in decent shape injury-wise, as the only starter at risk of missing this game is WR Mack Hollins, who is still dealing with an ankle injury that has kept him out of the last 2 games. Starting LB Nate Landman is also questionable but is expected to play.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Falcons vs. Jets below.
Bijan Robinson vs. Jets’ run defense
As noted above, Bijan Robinson is finally starting to cook for the Falcons offense with 229 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over his last two games.
Bijan Robinson has his first career game with TWO TOUCHDOWNS! 👏
(via #NFL FOX)
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) November 26, 2023
The Falcons run the ball on 51.5% of their offensive plays this season, which is the third highest rate in the league behind Baltimore and San Francisco. If they’re going to continue to do that while giving the bulk of those opportunities to a player like Robinson, then their offense can continue to look better and better.
The matchup against the Jets’ defense is not as tough as it was earlier in the season, when New York had one of the best run defenses in the league. They are now just 17th in DVOA against the run and they have surrendered significant yardage to opposing RBs in their last three games. Josh Jacobs ran for 116 against them three weeks ago (on 4.3 yards per carry); James Cook and Latavius Murray gained 108 (4 ypc) two weeks ago; and Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. combined for 150 (4.8 ypc) last week.
If Robinson and Tyler Allgeier can put up some similar numbers against the Jets this week, then the Falcons should have no problem covering -2.5 in this game.
Breece Hall vs. Falcons’ run defense
Both teams should and likely will lean heavily on the running game in this matchup given the inconsistent QB play on both sides. Hall has been quiet over his last four games, averaging just 64.3 yards from scrimmage on just under 4 yards per touch.
Unlike the Jets’ defense, the Falcons have been solid against opposing running backs. They fall in the top 12 in both rushing and receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs, and they are 10th in total yards and eighth in yards per touch allowed. One area where they could be vulnerable is the passing game, as they are allowing the sixth-most yards per reception to RBs despite the low total yardage.
Hall is the best thing the Jets have going offensively given their QB situation, and if the Falcons can shut him down, the Jets will not be able to do much else offensively.