Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers Same Game Parlay (12/3/23): Expert Predictions
The Green Bay Packers host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, and that sets up for a great primetime Same Game Parlay opportunity. In this article, find a Packers Vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay featuring Jordan Love, Christian Watson, and Travis Kelce.
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Green Bay Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
The Packers are fresh off their biggest win of the season, an upset of the Lions on Thanksgiving. Now, they host the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football with eyes set on getting back to .500. The Chiefs, meanwhile, finally found some second-half offense in their come from behind win over the Raiders.
In this article, I’ll build a Same Game Parlay featuring players from this game. With an over/under of 42.5 points, we’re not necessarily expecting a shootout here, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some correlated plays to build a SGP. I’m building this SGP on BetMGM, but keep in mind that different sportsbooks will offer different odds. Let’s get to work.
Leg 1: Jordan Love Under 244.5 Passing Yards
I’ve been very impressed with Jordan Love’s uptick in passing production, and he’s been over this number in three straight games. Over the past four weeks, he ranks fifth in PFF passing gerade (83.9), sixth in yards per attempt (8.0), and sixth in adjusted completion rate (78.7%). However, this looks like a sell high spot against a brutal opponent.
While Love is throwing the ball much better, it has to be noted that three of his last four games were against the Rams, Chargers, and Lions, three of the most vulnerable pass defenses in the NFL. That’s not the case this week as the Chiefs rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and 4th in EPA. Kansas City has allowed just 176.6 passing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, so let’s fade Love here.
Leg 2: Christian Watson Under 44.5 Receiving Yards
Along with our fade of Jordan Love in this difficult matchup, it makes sense to fade Christian Watson, his top wide receiver. Watson is coming off his best game of the season – five catches for 94 yards and a touchdown against the Lions – but the Chiefs have been dominant against wide receivers, holding A.J. Brown (8), Tyreek Hill (62), Courtland Sutton (29), and Keenan Allen (55) well below their season long yardage averages in recent weeks.
According to Fantasy Points Data, the Chiefs have also run the highest rate of two high safety looks in the NFL since Week 7 (70.7%), which is bad news for Watson, whose target share drops to 14.6% against that coverage type. With extra help over the top, it’s easier for defenses to contain Watson’s deep speed.
Leg 3: A.J. Dillon Over 29.5 Rushing Yards
With the passing game limited on Sunday, I’m expecting the Packers to turn to the ground game against a vulnerable Chiefs run defense. Kansas City ranks 31st in run defense EPA and ranks 19th with 113.4 rushing yards allowed per game. Dillon has 29+ rushing yards in four straight games as he’s been filling in for an injured Aaron Jones. While Dillon isn’t a game-breaking explosive back, he’s very capable of picking up 30 yards in what should be a solid matchup for him.
Leg 4: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown
Before we get out of here, let’s mix in a Chiefs prop and wager on Travis Kelce scoring a touchdown this week. Kelce is second among tight ends in red zone targets and has scored a touchdown in five of his ten games this season. Kelce is matchup proof, but it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Packers have dealt with injuries in the secondary as Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Darnell Savage, and Rudy Ford all missed last week’s game.
Same Game Parlay Card For Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Green Bay Packers
- Jordan Love Under 244.5 Passing Yards
- Christian Watson Under 44.5 Receiving Yards
- A.J. Dillon Over 29.5 Rushing Yards
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown
Full SGP Odds: +525 ($10 to win $52.50)
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