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There’s a lot of chalk on the board today from your usual suspects — Giannis at , Luka at , and Tatum at . The favorites have done fairly well so far, but, man, it does feel like there’s some serious value farther down the board today. None greater than the odds for Mr. 83 Points himself.
Without further ado, our NBA first basket pick for today is Bam Adebayo at odds. We’re up 6.5 units on the season.
Why We Like Bam Adebayo For NBA First Basket
With Tyrese Haliburton out and Ivica Zubac (ankle) and T.J. McConnell (hamstring) listed as questionable, Indiana is going to be pretty hamstrung offensively (no pun intended) early in this game. If Zubac can’t go, Indiana loses its biggest body in the paint, which matters for both the opening tip and Miami’s first trip down the floor. Add in Rick Carlisle being away from the team, and this sets up as a game where Miami should control the early possessions.
The Heat have won the opening tip in every game this season and have scored the game’s first field goal in four out of five.
Bam has been the one finishing those trips — he’s scored the first basket of the game twice in five starts (40% of the time). The logic tracks: with defenses loading up on Giannis Antetokounmpo early, Bam’s short rolls, dribble hand-offs and face-up looks are some of the cleanest early offense Miami has.
At +600, the books are giving Bam an implied probability of about 14.3% (100 / 700). For context, a single starter in a 10-man game sits around a 10% baseline before you factor anything else in, and Bam’s profile pushes him well above that: his team keeps winning the tip, it usually converts first, and he’s been a primary option on the opening set. Even if you knock his 40% hit rate down hard for small-sample noise, there’s still room between his true odds and this price. Meanwhile, Giannis is the chalk at a much shorter number while drawing from the exact same pool of Miami opening possessions.
NBA First Basket Picks Tracker
| Date | Pick | Odds | Units Wagered | Overall Record | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/30/2026 | Bam Adebayo | +600 | 1.00 | ?? | ?? |
| 10/29/2026 | Deni Avdija | +750 | 1.00 | 2-6 | ▲ 6.50 |
| 10/28/2026 | Tyler Herro | +650 | 1.00 | 2-5 | ▲ 7.50 |
| 10/27/2026 | Cade Cunningham | +500 | 1.00 | 1-5 | ▲ 1.00 |
| 10/26/2026 | Josh Giddey | +1400 | 1.00 | 1-4 | ▲ 2.00 |
| 10/23/2026 | Brandon Miller | +600 | 1.00 | 1-3 | ▲ 3.00 |
| 10/22/2026 | Jarrett Allen | +600 | 1.00 | 1-2 | ▲ 4.00 |
| 10/21/2026 | Anthony Edwards | +600 | 1.00 | 0-2 | ▼ 2.00 |
| 10/20/2026 | Jaylen Brown | +700 | 1.00 | 0-1 | ▼ 1.00 |
For more on how the NBA first basket market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.
