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Our Teaser: Patriots -1 (teased from -7) + Cowboys -1 (teased from -7) + Vikings +9 (teased from +3) (3-Team 6-Point Teaser, +140)
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The Teaser: 3-Team Breakdown
Leg 1: Patriots +7.5 (teased from -7)
After losing to the Chicago Bears, the New England Patriots will have a great opportunity to bounce back against Miami by relentlessly attacking a defense that ranks near the bottom of the board in DVOA. With the Dolphins struggling in coverage, Drake Maye will be able to flip the field position in a flash, leading to an uptick in the Patriots total number of scoring opportunities.
On the other side of the field, the Dolphins have also been abysmal on offense, limping into Week 8 ranked 23rd in EPA per play. With New England’s secondary capable of holding their own in single coverage, the Patriots will be able to spy their linebackers on the outside to help neutralize Malik Willis’s legs when he tries to take off and run, keeping the Dolphins comfortably behind the line to gain.
Leg 2: Cowboys -1 (teased from -1)
Even with the defense struggling to play at a competitive level, Dak Prescott’s high level of play under center has helped keep the Dallas Cowboys competitive, ranking in the top-10 in QB EPA per play and in Success Rate. Every bit of Prescott’s production has been needed to help reduce the amount of variance in the Cowboys contests, making it easier to pull away on the scoreboard when matched up against an inferior opponent.
Fortunately for Dallas, Prescott will be able to set a scoring pace too fast for the Arizona Cardinals to keep up with by picking apart a back end that ranks dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed per play. With Arizona lacking the explosiveness that is needed to keep pace with Dallas, the Cardinals will struggle to keep it close, drastically increasing the Cowboys probability of covering the teased line.
Leg 3: Vikings +9 (teased from +3)
After a slow start to the year, the Detroit Lions have started to get into a groove, rivaling the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills at the top of the board in DVOA and in EPA per play. The Lions re-tooled offensive line has given Jared Goff the protection he needs to help ward off pressure, operating behind a front five that resides in the top-5 in True Pass Set Grade. When in a clean pocket, the quality of Goff’s throws improves, leading to a high completion percentage.
In a daunting matchup against Minnesota, expect Goff to fall hard back down to reality while battling it out against a defense that comfortably leads the field in DVOA while generating pressure at the highest rate in the league. When Goff is forced to get the ball out of his hands shortly after the snap, the Lions pass catchers will struggle to create separation while jammed at the line of scrimmage, making it difficult to stay ahead of the sticks.
NFL Week 8 Teaser Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Original Line | Teased Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots -7 | Patriots -1 |
| 2 | Cardinals @ Cowboys | Cowboys -7 | Cowboys -1 |
| 3 | Vikings @ Lions | Vikings +3 | Vikings +9 |
3-Team, 6-Point Teaser: +140 — a $100 bet on this teaser pays $240 total ($140 profit).
Why This Teaser Hits
Kicking things off with New England, positive regression is looming large over the defense with the Dolphins lacking the versatility that is needed to scramble the second level. Especially with the Patriots stuffing the run at a high rate, fielding a front seven that ranks 13th in Rush EPA Allowed per play and 10th in Success Rate.
Speaking of versatility, the Cardinals stable of running backs have been unable to give Jacoby Brissett the production he needs to pull defensive attention to the middle with Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier ranking below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. When forced to throw into narrowing passing lanes, the amount of havoc in Brissett’s throws skyrockets, leading to a higher volume of Turnover Worthy Plays.
To wrap up the teaser, the Detroit Lions struggles on defense will help Kyler Murray round back into form by taking advantage of an injury riddled secondary that ranks in the bottom five in Def Dropback EPA Allowed per play and in Dropback Success Rate. Murray’s running ability will also force the Lions to spy their linebackers, creating more room for the Vikings pass catchers to exploit.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
