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Our Teaser: Lions -1 (teased from -7) + Seahawks -2.5 (teased from -8.5) + Packers +9 (teased from +3) (3-Team 6-Point Teaser, +140)
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Up to $1,000 Back in Bonus Bets Over First 10 Days*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
The Teaser: 3-Team Breakdown
Leg 1: Lions -1 (teased from -7)
With weapons littered all over the offense, the Detroit Lions have been able to play at a very high level, rivaling the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers for first in Off DVOA. Even with the defense struggling to find their footing while dealing with a slew of injuries, the production they receive from the offense helps reduce the amount of negative variance in the contest, increasing their chances of winning on a weekly basis.
Speaking of Detroit’s defense, positive regression is looming large in a matchup against the Miami Dolphins while battling it out against an offense that struggles to stay ahead of the sticks per their below league average mark in Success Rate. When Miami is held comfortably behind the line to gain, the Lions will be able to create early outs at a higher rate, giving the offense more possessions to help pull away on the scoreboard.
Leg 2: Seahawks -2.5 (teased from -8.5)
No Sam Darnold, no problem. Not only has the Seattle Seahawks QB been abysmal this season, Drew Lock has actually been far more efficient, leading his teammate in QB EPA per play. With Darnold out with an injury, the Seahawks will hand the reins to Lock moving forward, potentially elevating the offense as a whole.
In a favorable matchup against Arizona, Lock will have a great opportunity to pick up from where he left off by torching a secondary that ranks dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed per play. With Lock forcing the Cardinals to stretch out in coverage, the width of Seattle’s running lanes in the middle will widen, giving the Seahawks offense the versatility it needs to help keep their drives alive and get into scoring position at a consistent rate.
Leg 3: Packers +9 (teased from +3)
Over the past few weeks of play, Drake Maye has been able to get into a groove, leaping to the top of the board in QB EPA per play, CPOE, and in Success Rate while averaging 9.1 Air Yards per throw. An impressive performance when factoring in the minimal support Maye has received from his WR1 with AJ Brown struggling to shake off the rust since making his return from injury, forcing the New England Patriots QB to lean heavier on his supporting cast.
Unfortunately for Maye, he will fall hard back down to reality against the Green Bay Packers while trying to throw over the top of a secondary that excels in coverage per their top-5 mark in Def Pass EPA Allowed per play. With the Packers secondary holding their own in single coverage, the defense will be able to shade the linebackers to the middle, helping them stuff the run at a higher rate.
NFL Week 9 Teaser Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Original Line | Teased Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions @ Dolphins | Lions -7 | Lions -1 |
| 2 | Cardinals @ Seahawks | Seahawks -8.5 | Seahawks -2.5 |
| 3 | Packers @ Patriots | Packers +3 | Packers +9 |
3-Team, 6-Point Teaser: +140 — a $100 bet on this teaser pays $240 total ($140 profit).
Why This Teaser Hits
Using Detroit in a teaser helps lessen the probability of getting burned by a sizable spread should they look flat. While a road matchup against Miami shortly after a massive win against Minnesota looks less than ideal in regard to motivation, the Lions clear advantages on both sides of the ball will help keep the team competitive, leading to a lopsided affair.
Turning our attention towards Seattle, Gardner Minshew will have his hands full trying to move the ball on a Seahawks defense that resides near the top of the board in Def DVOA and in EPA while generating pressure at a high rate. When forced to get the ball out of his hands shortly after the snap, the Cardinals pass catchers will struggle to create separation, increasing the amount of Havoc in Minshew’s throws.
To round out the card, Jordan Love will be able to continue to air it out against the Patriots while facing off against a secondary that has steadily fallen down the board in Def Pass Success Rate. When in the shortened field, Josh Jacobs will help create more space on the outside by pulling defensive attention to the box, widening the width of Love’s passing lanes to help cap off their trips in the red zone with a score.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
