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Top TD Picks: Malik Willis , Ashton Jeanty
It’s time for the Sunday afternoon Week 9 slate, so we’re going to zone in on two anytime touchdown props. Last week on the Sunday slate, I came close to hitting a nice longshot with Mike Washington Jr., but after several carries within the 10-yard-line, he failed to punch it in the end zone.
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The targets for Week 9 Sunday touchdown props include Malik Willis and Ashton Jeanty. I like the matchup for Willis, while this looks like a buy-low spot on Jeanty. As always, be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
Malik Willis (Dolphins vs. Lions) Touchdown Odds
Malik Willis is starting to play well lately, throwing for 200+ yards in back-to-back games. But we’re targeting him to score a rushing touchdown in this game. There are a couple of reasons why I like this one.
First and foremost, the price is right, as you can get Willis at longer than +200 odds at the time of this article. Willis had eight carries in two of his last three games, scoring a touchdown twice during that stretch. As a dual-threat quarterback, he’s one of the biggest rushing threats in the NFL.
Willis only rushed once for two yards against the Patriots last week, but he was dealing with groin injury in that game. He’s practiced in full this week, so I would expect the injury to be much less of an issue. That means that we’re likely to see more rushing volume from Willis once again.
It’s a good matchup against the Lions, who have a vulnerable defense. It’s been better lately, but they’re dealing with injuries to D.J. Reed, Cade Mays, and DJ Wonnum. Brian Branch is questionable as well.
This is a game where the Dolphins are likely to play from behind as seven-point underdogs, which means more dropbacks for Willis. More dropbacks gives him more opportunities to take off and run. To that end, we’ll go with Willis to score a touchdown here.
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders vs. 49ers) Touchdown Odds
Ashton Jeanty has been one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL this year. Part of that is due to poor run-blocking, but we also have to give him some of the blame. That resulted in Mike Washington getting more touches last week. However, I wouldn’t expect to see such a wide gap between Washington and Jeanty in Week 9.
Yes, it’s likely to remain a committee, but 25-to-2 in carries is unlikely to continue. Part of that was likely disciplinary, with Klint Kubiak punishing Jeanty for his negative comments about the Jets in the media.
One thing that Jeanty does well is in the passing game. He’s the better pass-blocker and receiver out of the backfield than Washington. With the Raiders coming in as heavy underdogs on the road against the 49ers, they’re likely to be airing it out as they play from behind.
On top of that, the 49ers are 1st in Rush EPA, so it’s in the Raiders’ best interest to target their running back in the passing game as de facto running plays. You can get Jeanty at around +150 odds at the time of this article, making him worth a look as a buy-low after his worst week of the season.
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