The New England Patriots head to Pittsburgh this Thursday (12/7/23) for an AFC showdown with the Pittsburgh Steelers. While this may not be the most anticipated matchup of the season, the reality remains that there is some value in the betting markets ahead of Kickoff. Find odds & same game parlay picks for Patriots vs Steelers below
New England Patriots Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Same Game Parlay Picks
The total heading into this primetime game is a painfully low 30 points. That’s the lowest total in an NFL game since 1993. The book seems to have been written on this game with offensive production sparse and points impossible to come by. But what if that’s not the case?
In this Same Game Parlay built on FanDuel Sportsbook, I’m going to lean into the short week producing tired legs on defense and some surprising offensive production from these typically dormant scoring units. After all, the value is on that side with all of the betting lines deflated. Let’s get to work.
Leg 1: Mitchell Trubisky Over 180.5 Passing Yards (-113)
The Patriots’ defense has seemingly been impenetrable lately as they have given up just a combined 23 points over their last three games. However, they remain vulnerable against the pass where they rank 28th in defensive EPA. The Patriots rank middle of the pack with 221.8 passing yards per game allowed.
Mitchell Trubisky averaged 178.9 passing yards per game last season, but he didn’t start or finish all of those games as Kenny Pickett played in multiple of them. With Pickett now injured for the next few weeks, the Steelers’ backup quarterback is Mason Rudolph, and I doubt Pittsburgh will be eager to pull the plug on Trubisky even if he throws a couple of interceptions.
For what it’s worth, Trubisky said he’s “going to be aggressive.” While that could mean some turnovers, it could also mean big plays against a secondary that’s prone to give them up. The Patriots’ pass defense simply hasn’t been the same without Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon, and while Trubisky is far from an elite passer, he can take advantage somewhat.
Leg 2: Diontae Johnson Over 4.5 Receptions (+118)
When Trubisky played last season, Diontae Johnson was his favorite target. Johnson averaged 6.3 receptions across Trubisky’s seven games, clearing the over on this prop in six of them. That includes six receptions against this Patriots team last season. The Patriots have been vulnerable in the slot this season as Myles Bryant has allowed an 83.9% catch rate, the second-highest of 129 qualified cornerbacks.
This prop was priced at 3.5 earlier in the week, which was a mispriced line that the market took care of quickly. Still, I believe there’s value in this prop at 4.5 receptions for Johnson, and I especially like the inclusion here given the correlation with our other props.
Leg 3: Over 30.5 Points (-105)
This play probably requires the biggest leap of faith, but the contrarian play certainly is the over here. The under has taken heavy action throughout the week, with 91% of the total bets on the under according to SportsBettingDime. However, we have reached a freeze point at 30 with FanDuel even ticking back up to 30.5.
31 simply isn’t a high bar to clear in an NFL game, and while primetime unders have been cashing at an insane rate this season, all three primetime games went over the closing total last week. Let’s make the contrarian play and bet on slightly more points than the market is suggesting.
Same Game Parlay Card For New England Patriots Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Mitchell Trubisky Over 180.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Diontae Johnson Over 4.5 Receptions (+118)
- Over 30.5 Total Points (-105)
Full SGP Odds: +404 ($25 to win $101.15)
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