Get Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals player prop picks & odds for the (11/26/23) matchup.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Cincinnati Ohio as a home game for the Bengals. The Steelers are currently a -1.5 favorite and -118 on the moneyline while the total is set at 35.5. Jaylen Warren will possibly see his workload increase while Kenny Pickett struggles to crack this defense, all giving value as player props for this Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals matchup.
Jaylen Warren Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
It’s been no secret that Jaylen Warren has been the better running back as Najee Harris has continued to struggle. Warren has steadily chipped away at Najee’s usage, now potentially being rumored to take the lead back role heading into this contest against the Bengals. While it’s still expected that Harris will play a decent sized role, Warren’s upticks in carries still gives value towards this over.
With Warren potentially taking over starting running back duties, he should be able to hit the ground running and find immediate success against a weak Bengals front seven. When the Bengals defense is not creating Havoc, they have actually mightily struggled at limiting downfield progression. Especially on the ground, ranking 30th in Def Rush DVOA, 28th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 29th in Def Rush EPA.
His ability to capitalize on their lack of Def Success Rate is vital as that helps set up the Steelers offense for shorter distances to gain on later downs. Moving the sticks has been an issue for Pittsburgh, now being in a position to sustain drives down the field and give Warren extra carries to help clear this over.
Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown
A low total usually indicates that scoring will come at a premium for both offenses heading into this contest but does not totally rule out the potential for one or two scores. When Pittsburgh is in scoring position, Jaylen Warren is in a great position to continue to find the end zone as the Steelers dual threat back.
Jaylen Warren is Gen-Z Austin Ekelerpic.twitter.com/jE4htshAc7
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 19, 2023
With the Bengals ranking 28th in Adjusted Line Yards and 29th in Def Rush EPA, that indicates that they have struggled to limit opposing running backs when in scoring position. Capitalizing on scoring opportunities has been an issue for Pittsburgh, yet Warren gives them a dual threat presence and a valuable tool to play with that can give opposing linebacking units trouble.
Maximizing on scoring opportunities is vital towards a team’s chances to pull out the win, especially with a total indicating that touchdowns will come at a slow rate. Getting the ball out of Pickett’s hands will be their best course of action, avoiding potential Havoc through the air against a Havoc minded secondary and running up the gut for a potential score.
Kenny Pickett Under 199.5 Passing Yards
Firing Matt Canada may prove that he was not the sole reason for Pittsburgh offensive inefficiencies. Kenny Pickett has been just as much to blame, struggling to stretch the field as an inconsistent downfield passer. This has reverted him to rely more on short throws outside of the numbers, normally resulting in stalled out drives.
This makes for an intriguing battle against a young Bengals secondary who has actually struggled to defend the pass when they are not creating Havoc. The Bengals currently rank 28th in Def Pass Success Rate, playing into Pickett’s hands as a heavy short field passer. The issue for Pickett is that he may find himself under pressure as the Bengals front four ranks ninth in Adjusted Sack Rate and will force Pickett to get the ball out of his hands quicker than he would like.
Kenny Pickett Longest Completion Under 33.5 Yards
Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned prop, Pickett will consistently find himself under pressure and having to get rid of the ball quicker than he would like. Even as an already conservative type of thrower, mainly finding himself throwing checkdowns and for short distances outside of the numbers.
Factor in a potential heavier dose of the run as Jaylen Warren continues to carve out a role, and Pickett will see his passing attempts diminish as well. With less pass attempts comes less chances of Pickett being able to clear this mark. Especially with the Bengals blitzing at a below average rate, opting into the idea of keeping their linebackers in coverage. That means extra bodies in the open field, lessening the chance of someone breaking one out from a short throw with extra Bengals tacklers crashing to the ball.