Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Sunday, March 29, 2026
We had a profitable day on Saturday, as Munetaka Murakami went yard for us again, helping to overcome losses from Jac Caglianone and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
On a 12-game Sunday slate, we’re riding with the Braves’ slugging catcher, a young Orioles’ infielder, and the Reds’ veteran catcher. Each of these picks has odds at +500 or longer (at the time of this article). We want to put only 0.1 units on each pick, with it paying at least 0.5 units, since home run markets are extremely tough.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 2-6 (+0.68 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Friday, Mar. 27)
Drake Baldwin Home Run Odds
Drake Baldwin is quickly developing into one of the best offensive catchers in MLB. After slashing .274/.341/.469 with 19 home runs in 446 plate appearances as a rookie, Baldwin has already gone yard this season.
This is a hitter who put up an 11.0% barrel rate with a 15.2% strikeout rate last year. The combination of hitting the ball hard while limiting strikeouts is one of the telltale signs of an emerging stud.
What I like about this spot against the Royals is that Baldwin is going up against Seth Lugo, who allowed a 1.67 HR/9 and 11.1% barrel rate last year.
We’re getting a nice price on Baldwin here, so we’ll take a chance that he hits his second homer of the year in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Coby Mayo Home Run Odds
Coby Mayo is a formerly touted prospect who consistently homered 20+ times in the minors. Now with Jordan Westburg injured, Mayo is getting a chance to show what he can do with everyday playing time.
While he hasn’t homered yet, he’s the best value on the board for the Orioles in this matchup. I wanted to pick on Bailey Ober, who allowed a 1.85 HR/9 last year and has shown diminished velocity this spring.
Out of the Orioles’ hitters, Mayo looks like the best value. It’s the perfect combination of a talented young hitter facing a pitcher with a longball problem in a hitter-friendly environment at Camden Yards.
Feels like the right moment for Mayo to hit his first homer of the year. We’ll take our chances at this price. Risk 0.1 units.
Tyler Stephenson Home Run Odds
Tyler Stephenson is a lefty-mashing catcher who registered a 126 wRC+ against southpaws last year. I like his longshot odds considering this game is against a lefty in the home run haven that is Great American Ball Park.
Even though I’m a big fan of Red Sox left-hander Connelly Early, he’s still a young pitcher making his season debut. It’s not exactly an easy spot to do so, since it’s in the best park to hit home runs in baseball.
Early was dominant vs. lefties last season (0.42 xFIP), but righties performed much better against him (3.14 xFIP). Stephenson can hit the ball hard, as highlighted by his 14.4% barrel rate last season.
There’s 20-homer pop in Stephenson’s bat, so we’ll play him at +600 odds here. Risk 0.1 units.
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