Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos (11/17/2019): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week: 5-6
All Time Results: 69-61-1, +10.23 Units

4-team, 7.5 Point Teaser (+185): Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals +19 @ San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles +11 vs. New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders-3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals – 1 Unit

 

4-TEAM TEASER OF THE MILLENIUM! This bet is a winner.  Guaranteed!  Absolutely any amount of money you want to bet on this game – (up to $1) – I will personally refund if you this play loses!  You will tell your children’s grandchildren’s children’s children about this play.  (BTW science is about to solve aging.)  “You see this gold statue?” you will say, bouncing your granddaughter’s granddaughter on your knee. “I took this picture of this statue after winning a 100 American Dollars on this tease!”

The casino is handing out free money leaving these lines where they are.

 

 

 

Sportsbook
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4.95
 
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Leg 1: Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Denver Broncos

minnesota vikingsKirk Cousins is decent, I’ve been telling ya.  I asked my Uncle once – back when I was an intern with Washington in 2012- why do people say they feel bad for him? So he wasn’t going to play his first year, so what? He agreed.  Brett Favre didn’t play his first year.  Drew Brees didn’t play his first year.  Amazing.

Let’s look at the three: Who is Brett Favre, Drew Brees or Kirk Cousins

Player A: Win Percentage = 62%. GW Drives Per Start = .14.  Average Yearly QBR = 54.2. Passer Rating = 86 

Player B: Win Percentage = 51%. GW Drives Per Start = .15.  Average Yearly QBR = 60.5.  Passer Rating= 97

Player C: Win Percentage = 59%  GW Drives Per Start = .18. Average Yearly QBR = 72.1. Passer Rating = 98

Oh, you instantly figured out that player A is Brett Favre because of his old school, John Elway-Esq, Passer Rating – realizing that they only had QBR the last few years of his career.

And you figured Player C is Drew Brees because Drew Brees is Drew Brees and way better in his prime than almost any human could ever dream of, hence his unparalleled numbers? Of course.

Oh, and you immediately saw the lowest Win Percentage and pegged Kirk Cousins.   Good for you. Well done, you’re right: Cousins is not these legends.  He’s also good.  He’s been good.  He was literally never bad.  We know this now.  But the market still hasn’t adjusted because of all the jokes.  Granted, “Cousins” is a good comic punchline-sounding word.

On the other side, we have Brandon Allen.  I mean, c’mon.  What kind of name is Brandon Allen? Two first names? I’m just going to assume he’s terrible.  I don’t watch football.

Leg 2: Arizona Cardinals +19 @ San Francisco 49ers
Leg 3: Philadelphia Eagles +11 vs. New England Patriots

Numbers courtesy of the Dream Preview Podcast:

arizona cardinalsTeams 4-0 or better who encounter their first loss are 38% ATS in the next game. This makes sense.  There is a letdown. The dream of the perfect season – as far away even as it seemed – has now been nullified.  The Super Bowl dream persists, but it won’t be won in the next game. All of the good feelings of waking up each Monday, let’s go for 4-0, let’s go for 5-0, let’s go for 6-0 – all that’s gone.

What’s the motivation?  15-1 teams don’t have a great record in the playoffs.  Only one of the last four 15-1 NFL teams made the Super Bowl, the 2015 Panthers who lost by doubles against the Broncos once they got there.  It’s not about Wins at this point.  It’s about getting better.

With Kittle unlikely and the status of Sanders uncertain, I don’t see the 49ers being able to get the margin.

I explain my thoughts on the Philly New, England game here.

The Eagles and Cardinals get up for this Sunday.

Leg 4: Oakland Raiders -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

oakland raidersJon Gruden has been waiting for this moment. The Raiders. Plundering just for fun.

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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