Robins: DraftKings Predictions Not Getting Into War, Death Markets

With the backdrop of the war in Iran, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins says the company is drawing a hard line in refusing to post markets that turn live geopolitical conflicts into bets on life and death. His comments came in early March after prediction markets allowed trading on the timing and toll of strikes that began in late February and has included civilian casualties. Polymarket and other operators came under intense criticism for offering markets on possible U.S.–Israeli military strikes on Iran and other geopolitical hotspots. Specifically, the Iran conflict triggeredmore than $529 million in trading on Polymarket on the timing of the attacks and the fate of Iran’s leadership. There has also beenspeculation that some traders used nonpublic information

.

DraftKings steers clear, keeps focus on sports and entertainment

Robins addressed the topic on March 2

 during an interview with business site 24/7 Wall St. Robins framed DraftKings’ stance as both an ethical line and a regulatory safeguard. He argued that death and war “do not belong” in a product the company still markets as entertainment.

“When you start betting on people living, dying wars, it seems to cross a line that I think is not really what we’re looking for.”

Robins also said the company has internal guidelines that block event contracts tied to geopolitical flashpoints. The ethical line comes as DraftKings leans harder into prediction markets with its DraftKings Predictions app that debuted in mid-December in 38 states including huge markets such as California where sports betting is still illegal. The app limits trading to sports results, financial outcomes with expansion eyed for entertainment and cultural events.

“Predictions is rapidly developing into a massive incremental opportunity, and we are moving with urgency,” Robins told investors last month during the company’s 2025 fourth-quarter earnings call. “We expect to emerge as the leader in this nascent category. We plan to deploy growth capital to build the best customer experience and predictions and acquire millions of customers.”

With a stance towards posting markets on geopolitical events made clear, Robins also addressed external guardrails, most notably from Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He highlighted the agency’s recent change from mostly hands‑off to a “full-fledged affirmation that this is something the CFTC considers to be firmly under their jurisdiction.”

Polymarket and Kalshi have contrasting reactions

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan addressed the backlash at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on March 7 with the quip “more money, more problems” while calling war markets “complicated.”He asserted “there’s still a lot of resistance to innovation that can seem jarring, initially” when discussing the intersection of global conflicts and prediction markets.In contrast, Kalshi distanced itself from the “death market.” The company voided payouts and issued refunds on markets tied to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei‘s death during the late February strikes in Iran. The company referred to an internal rule that blocks direct profits from fatalities.CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC the company does not list markets “directly tied to death” and designs rules to prevent profiting from it.

Congressional movement to ban war-related trading targets public officials

In the meantime, on Capitol Hill, Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act on March 4. The proposed legislation, which has the support of30 Democrat House members, aims to ban the president, vice president, members of Congress, and their immediate families from trading event contracts on prediction platforms. It would also restrict senior executive branch officials from trading on matters they influence or have non-public information about.Merkley mentioned CFTC oversight in remarks about the measure:“This legislation strengthens the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to go after bad actors and provides rules of the road to prevent those with confidential government or policy information from exploiting their access for financial gain.”