MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Monday, July 20, 2026
We got shut out on Sunday, as Juan Soto and Cal Raleigh each failed to homer, while Bobby Witt Jr. was out of the lineup.
Today, we’re going with Riley Greene, Seiya Suzuki, and James Wood. Each of these hitters is in a favorable spot.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 64-248 (+0.76 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, July 20
Riley Greene Home Run Odds
We’re starting the Monday slate by focusing on the Tigers vs. Cubs game, choosing two hitters from this favorable spot. This is a projected high-scoring game, as highlighted by the 11-run total.
The reason why the total is so high is that we’ve got 83-degree temperatures with 13 MPH winds blowing out at Wrigley. This could turn a lazy flyball into a home run.
The first hitter that we’re targeting for this game is Riley Greene, who is slashing .286/.379/.467 with 14 home runs in 412 plate appearances. He’s got excellent batted ball metrics, including a 14.3% barrel rate. Greene homered yesterday, so I’m betting that he can build off that.
It’s an exploitable matchup vs. Jameson Taillon, who has a 2.66 HR/9 on the season. He’s returning from injury, as this is his first start since June 7th, which bodes well for Greene.
With that in mind, we’ll take Greene to hit No. 15 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Seiya Suzuki Home Run Odds
The next hitter to ride with at hitter-friendly Wrigley today is Seiya Suzuki, who is slashing .273/.357/.469 with 15 home runs in 356 plate appearances.
While his barrel rate is down this year, we’ve seen him homer twice in his last eight games, so he’s starting to find his groove at the plate.
This is a good spot against Jack Flaherty, who is allowing an 8.4% barrel rate this season. While Flaherty doesn’t have much of a problem with home runs, allowing only one in his last seven starts, the weather conditions at Wrigley today can affect any pitcher.
We’re getting Suzuki at longer than +300 odds at the time of the article, which is enough value for me to take the plunge. Bet on Suzuki to hit No. 16 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
James Wood Home Run Odds
James Wood is having a monster season, slashing .272/.401/.556 with 28 home runs in 469 plate appearances. This includes an otherworldly 22.4% barrel rate. Simply put, Wood hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball.
We’ve seen Wood homer seven times in July so far, so he’s in top form right now. Up next is a series at Coors Field, one of the most hitter-friendly environments in MLB.
While it’s a lefty-vs-lefty spot vs. Kyle Freeland, Wood still has a .243 ISO against lefties, so I’m not too concerned about that. This is the reason why we’re getting a bit of a better price on Wood to go yard tonight.
Freeland has had major issues with the long ball, allowing a 1.84 HR/9. Given how hot Wood has been at the plate, we’ll ride with him here. Risk 0.1 units.
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