2025 U.S. Open Pool Picks: Betting Strategy & Expert Predictions, Including Jon Rahm
The most popular time of the year for golf pools has arrived. So, if you’re a casual sports fan, hesitant to bet U.S. Open odds, and want to play in a contest with friends, you’ve come to the right place. This strategy guide will walk you through the best options in each tier for your 2025 U.S. Open golf pool picks.
I’ve also already written about U.S. Open DFS picks for fantasy contests, which could apply to traditional pools.
U.S. Open Betting Odds
Find the odds for this year’s U.S. Open below. You can use these to inform your U.S. Open pool picks as well. Click any odds to wager on U.S. Open odds at betting apps in your area.
Strategy For U.S. Open Golf Pool Picks
Like a daily fantasy tournament strategy (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.), game theory is key for your U.S. Open golf pool picks. It’s best first to understand who the popular players in each tier will be, then decide which ones you want to double down on and which ones you’re comfortable fading for a more contrarian option. Below, we’ll review each tier’s consensus popular and pivot plays. The format in each golf pool will vary, but the tiers below are structured in order of consensus betting odds, as is most common for golf pools.
How Do U.S. Open Pool Picks Work?
Typically, the best cumulative score under par of the players rostered wins a U.S. Open pool. Some pools will severely penalize one of your players’ scores if they miss the cut. For example, if a player misses the cut with a score of +2, the pool may add 10 strokes and make the player +12. That means it’s critical that the players you pick make the cut. Also, check your pool rules to see if the worst score is not counted among your picks. Sometimes, this is a feature of golf pool rules and scoring.
Tier 1: Top 1-6 Players
The Popular Play: Scottie Scheffler ()
The best golfer on the planet comes to Oakmont CC as the prohibitive favorite in red-hot form. He is looking to win successive majors this season after coasting to an easy victory at Quail Hollow at last month’s PGA Championship. He comes to the U.S. Open now with three wins in his last four starts, including his most recent start at the Memorial.
I’m not going to hand Scheffler this trophy already on a course that penalizes near misses as severely as Oakmont does, but it’s hard to picture a scenario where Scheffler is not in the mix come Sunday.
- Related: Golf Oddsmaker On Scottie Scheffler’s Historic U.S. Open Odds
The Pivot Play: Jon Rahm ()
Rahmbo has been a top-10 machine, posting a staggering 22 top-10 finishes over his last 15 starts. Resigned to the obscurity of the LIV Tour, however, I’d still expect the quality of his current form to go overlooked in U.S. Open golf pools. Rahm has finished T14 and T8 in his first two major starts this season, and has the combination of distance and control off the tee that is necessary to score at Oakmont.
He’s not my pick to win this week, but it’s within the range of outcomes for Rahm to outduel Scheffler this week.
Tier 2: Top 7-20 Players
The Popular Play: Justin Thomas ()
After the top six in this field, I’m not quite sure there is a consensus second-tier play. Given his pedigree as a two-time Major champion in his prime and in elite form leading in, I expect it will be Justin Thomas who emerges as the favorite in this group. Thomas can be erratic at times, but ranks top-10 in the field in SG: Ball Striking and SG: OTT in difficult driving conditions.
He has a win and two additional runner-up finishes over his last six starts.
The Pivot Play: Viktor Hovland ()
Viktor Hovland may very well be my favorite overall play in U.S. Open pools. I have so much faith that I’ve staked myself in him to win outright, and as my One And Done selection this week. And in a second-tier range loaded with great, in-form options like Joaquin Niemann, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, and Sepp Straka, Hovland won’t be many people’s first or second option.
He came his closest to winning a major at Oak Hill (T2), which is one of my favorite comp courses, to Oakmont, and is just six starts removed from winning the Valspar Championship.
Tier 3: Top 21-50 Players
The Popular Play: Keegan Bradley ()
Team USA’s Ryder Cup captain has been known to draw a crowd, and it seems as though all roads lead back to Keegan at Oakmont. He has sustained one of the best ball-striking seasons of his career thus far in 2025, ranking in the top 10 in SG: Ball-Striking and SG: APP. Surprisingly, he also ranks No. 2 in Approach Putting, so although his putting metrics have looked lackluster this season, he’s proven to be one of the most effective lag putters in this field.
The Pivot Play: Matt Fitzpatrick ()
We are just three years removed from Matt Fitzpatrick’s triumphant performance at Brookline, and yet Fitzpatrick continues to fly under the radar. It hasn’t been the best of seasons for the Englishman, but three consecutive top-30s suggest he’s starting to right the ship. When Fitzpatrick’s in the type of form we’re now starting to see again, he’s proven to thrive in the most difficult conditions, relying on his driver and elite short game. He’ll make a push for his fifth major top-10 finish since 2022 this week.
Tier 4: Top 51-75 Players
The Popular Play: Cameron Young ()
It was yet another heartbreaking finish for Cameron Young at the RNC Canadian Open last week, falling just short of reaching the playoff alongside Sam Burns and Ryan Fox. Even still, he’s made enough noise competing over the last few weeks to make himself one of the most sought-after options in this tier of U.S. Open pools.
Young has now finished in the top 10 in two of his last four starts and looks to be in complete control of his driver, which should give him a distinct leg up at Oakmont CC.
The Pivot Play: Denny McCarthy ()
Denny’s track record on long and difficult venues defies logic, considering he ranks below average in driving distance and is about tour-average in SG: APP. Even still, his best finishes this season have come on comp courses to Oakmont CC, finishing top-10 at the PGA Championship and Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines.
Known as arguably the world’s best putter, that’s a skillset that should give him a distinct advantage on Oakmont’s massive, nuanced greens.
Tier 5: Top 76+ Players
The Popular Play: Carlos Ortiz ()
Rivaling Jon Rahm’s form on LIV leading up to this event, Carlos Ortiz carries a streak of five straight top-15 finishes leading up to the U.S. Open, including a win on the Asian Tour over that stretch. Ortiz has sustained great all-around form over that stretch, gaining in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and SG: ARG in each of those last five starts.
On a course that exaggerates mishits like no other, few others in this tier have a form comparable to Ortiz’s right now.
The Pivot Play: Davis Riley ()
A true boom or bust player, I think it’s best to assume that the last player in your U.S. Open pool lineup is likely to miss the cut. So, why not throw caution to the wind and swing for the fences on a player like Davis Riley, who has demonstrated his upside in the toughest conditions? Riley has finished T21 and T2 in his first two major starts this season, and is just one year removed from out-dueling Scottie Scheffler to win the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge, at a venue that rewards a similar combination of precision off-the-tee and putting on fast greens.
Best of luck with your U.S. Open pool picks. Remember to sign up for “King of the Course,” which gives bettors a chance to win a share of $1 million in bonus bets!
- Related: Best U.S. Open Odds To Make & Miss The Cut
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