2026 NBA Finals MVP Contenders, Best Bets, Odds & Predictions

The 2026 NBA Finals is set with a rematch of the 1999 series on tap between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs were massive favorites back then, but the Eastern Conference has come a ways over the past decade with three of the past seven titles. 

New York is a 2/1 underdog to win the championship at most sportsbooks, and odds for NBA Finals MVP are correlated to that underdog status. Jerry West is the only player to win Finals MVP when his team lost the series, back in the inaugural year of the award in 1969, so players generally have to win the title to earn the trophy. 

The Bill Russell Finals MVP Award is selected after the series by a panel of 11 media members. Since 2020, there have been five unanimous selections by the panel and one very close vote between Boston’s co-stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. 

Brown won as a slight underdog in the market in 2024 and Steph Curry had longer odds in 2022 because his Golden State Warriors weren’t expected to win the title that season. The same is true for Kawhi Leonard in 2019. 

The last significant underdog to win Finals MVP was Andre Iguodala in 2015. He earned 7 of the 11 votes to edge out LeBron James as the Warriors beat the Cavaliers. Tony Parker was a surprise in 2007, taking the award over teammate Tim Duncan, who won it in 1999, 2003, and 2005. Manu Ginobili nearly split the vote with Duncan in 2005.

2026 NBA Finals MVP Winner Odds

This year, one player looms above the field due to his out-sized impact on the defensive end of the floor. Victor Wembanyama is the only player with negative odds on the board, although his odds are slightly longer than the Spurs (-205) odds to win the title, creating a sliver of value, since the Spurs are highly unlikely to win it all if Wemby gets hurt or is less effective. 

Following Wemby we have the three most impactful Knicks players. Jalen Brunson is the team leader and one of the savviest players in the NBA, so it will fall on him to crack the Spurs elite defense consistently. Karl-Anthony Towns is in the midst of the best playoff performance of his career and he will be tasked with challenging Wemby’s defense by shooting from the perimeter and attacking the paint. OG Anunoby is also on a heater this postseason, and he could spend consistent time guarding Wembanyama. 

The Spurs have three guards in the next grouping with Stephon Castle ahead of De’Aaron Fox and rookie Dylan Harper on odds boards. Castle is a ferocious two-way player and will look to slow down Brunson to win the battle on the perimeter. Both Fox and Harper battled injuries in the Western Conference Finals and are looking to keep improving as the playoffs progress.

Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart are vital role players for the Knicks and both will have huge roles in this series, but oddsmakers consider them to be longshots for Finals MVP honors. It would take a barrage of 3-pointers in every game and elite defense, key hustle plays, and other notable moments for either to win it. 

The Spurs final two starters, Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie, fall into the same bucket. Then we get into bench players, including Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson for the Spurs. 

If he can play through a broken thumb, Mitchell Robinson could have a big impact on this series by guarding Wembanyama. Landry Shamet emerged as a fantastic reserve for the Knicks over the past few weeks and Miles McBride has stepped up when called upon.

2026 NBA Finals MVP Best Bet & Prediction

Chalk Pick: Victor Wembanyama

Watching the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder crumble offensively in the face of Wembanyama’s rim protection should terrify the league. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled to generate anything in the paint, Chet Holmgren was a net negative, and the Thunder were reduced to firing contested 3-pointers by the end of that series. 

If the same fate befalls the Knicks red-hot offense in the Finals, there will be no doubt for voters. Wemby won Defensive Player of the Year in unanimous fashion and would likely be the unanimous Finals MVP if the Spurs win.

Sleeper Pick: KAT

For the Knicks to win this series, Towns has to be disciplined on defense, aggressive on drives, and lights out on his 3-point shooting. All those factors could negate Wemby to a degree and allow the Knicks guards and wings to succeed with their space-and-pace attack. Towns has been playing excellent defense this postseason and will likely try to emulate the defensive approach Isaiah Hartenstein used to slow Wemby in the West Finals. 

Offensively, the self-proclaimed “Best shooting big man of all time” should average 2-3 made 3-pointers per game to force the Spurs defense out of its shell. Wemby likely won’t guard Towns in all scenarios, but his impact on offense will correlate to Wemby’s rim protection. Those factors make Towns a better value than Brunson with odds up to 10 times longer. 

Longshot Pick: OG Anunoby

Think back to the 2015 Finals when Andre Iguodala slowed down LeBron James enough for the Warriors to beat the star-studded Cavs. OG Anunoby is the perfect candidate to win this award for his defense on the opposition’s superstar, and he could wind up in a close vote with Wembanyama, similar to how Iggy edged out LeBron, 7-4, in 2015. 

Anunoby is arguably the best individual defender to throw at Wemby because he has enough length to bother the 7-foot-5 center’s gather, enough strength to box him out, and lateral quickness combined with a low center of gravity to push him off his spots. His defense on Wemby helped the Knicks beat the Spurs handily in the NBA Cup Final and in a March 1 meeting. Anunoby is also shooting 58% from the floor and 48% from three while averaging 19.7 points per game this postseason, so his two-way impact will be a significant factor. 

When it comes to picking between the three picks listed, there simply isn’t enough history of underdogs winning this award. We can grab a tick of value on Wemby to win Finals MVP instead of backing the Spurs to win the title. 

While the Knicks have looked fantastic while running through the Eastern Conference, the Spurs hit another level to dispatch the Thunder, and Wemby is healthier and more confident than he was in those mid-season losses to the Knicks. He can officially secure his throne as the best player in the league by grabbing the Larry O’Brien trophy and earning the Bill Russell Finals MVP. 

Photo Credit: AP/Tony Gutierrez