NFL MVP Odds 2019-2020: Patrick Mahomes the Favorite

Since 2000, the award has been given to a quarterback 16 times. We have seen a running backs take home this award, but just four times in that same span. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a 50 touchdown season where he took home the MVP. He already leads the way at +1100. It is a bit odd to see Tom Brady and Drew Brees next in line, given their seasons have been more on par with the average quarterback over the last few seasons. The upside for them is a bit capped given both of their teams have geared more towards the run or at least a balanced offense in the last few seasons. I would be more inclined on taking the young quarterbacks who have better value and stand more of a chance to get this award.

Running backs and other positions have been at a disadvantage for a while now given that quarterbacks get the attention. If a wide receiver has a standout season, the quarterback still has the upper hand. Alvin Kamara has the highest odds of any non-quarterback position, with a few others behind him. We will take a look at what it would take for a guy like Kamara to have a chance at winning MVP. The FanDuel Sportsbook has MVP odds out, and they certainly have some eye-popping values.

Player Odds
Patrick Mahomes
+500
Aaron Rodgers
+900
Tom Brady
+900
Carson Wentz
+1100
Drew Brees
+1200
Baker Mayfield
+2000
Philip Rivers
+2500
Russell Wilson
+2500
Deshaun Watson
+2300
Lamar Jackson
+2300
Dak Prescott
+2900
Ben Roethlisberger
+3000
Christian McCaffrey
+3000
Jared Goff
+3000
Saquon Barkley
+3000
Matt Ryan
+3500
Jimmy Garoppolo
+4000
Cam Newton
+4000
Krik Cousins
+4000
Ezekiel Elliott
+4100
Alvin Kamara
+4100
Mitchell Trubisky
+4400
Matthew Stafford
+5000
Todd Gurley
+6000
Le’Veon Bell
+6000
Derrick Henry
+6000
Aaron Donald
+8000
David Johnson
+8000
Kyler Murray
+8000

Repeat For Patrick Mahomes?

We have seen a few quarterbacks win back-to-back MVP awards of late, as Peyton Manning did it in 2003 and 2004, and then again in 2008 and 2009. Brett Favre did it in 1995 and 1996. Joe Montana did it in 1989 and 1990. Patrick Mahomes 2018 season was historic. He finished with over 5,000 yards passing, and had 50 touchdowns. Sure even with some touchdown regression coming, Mahomes is a gem in this offense and has the weapons to produce another big year. +500 is a pretty healthy return on someone who is projected to throw nearly 40 touchdowns and over 4,500 yards. This has generally been the mark quarterbacks have needed to hit, alongside a healthy record for their team.

Tom Brady and Matt Ryan both surpassed 4,500 passing yards in the last two seasons where they took home the award. Cam Newton was a different type of MVP like season, where he threw for 3,395 yards and 24 touchdowns. However, his 636 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns pushed him over the edge. Peyton Manning’s 2013 season was the big one, where the threw 5,477 yards and had 55 touchdowns. The 2014 season where Aaron Rodgers won, he had 4,381 yards and 38 touchdowns. I could see Mahomes in this type of range yet again. The Chiefs are expected to be a double-digit win team as well.

How Does Alvin Kamara Stack Up?

Coming in at +4100 is interesting, and given a tick up in the workload, he has a real chance at posting near MVP numbers. Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Shaun Alexander have been the MVP winners since Marshall Faulk did it in 2000. Let’s take a look at their all-purpose yards and touchdowns for their MVP seasons. It is certainly a long shot given that the voting leans heavily towards quarterbacks, but Kamara has a chance to put it together for a monster year. I’m convinced last year’s season would have put him in the voting in the early 2000s. Of course we are not in the early 2000s anymore.

  • Shaun Alexander – 1,958 all-purpose yards / 28
  • LaDainian Tomlinson – 2,323 all-purpose yards / 31 TD
  • Adrian Peterson – 2,314 all-purpose yards / 13 TD

alvin kamaraAlvin Kamara is already a rookie of the year winner, and has seen 100+ targets in both seasons so far. In 2017 he finished with 1,554 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns. Last season he had 1,592 yards from scrimmage, and 18 total touchdowns. Those Tomlinson and Alexander touchdown seasons won’t be touched by Kamara, but there is a potential bump up in all-purpose yards. He will need to hit 1,700+ all-purpose yards at the least to get some noise. A 20 spot in the touchdown column would really push the narrative for Kamara. Obviously we are looking at complete ceiling hits for Kamara in year three, but in this offense it is certainly possible. The pass happy NFL will continue to dominate MVP awards with MVP, but every now and then we get a big RB year that could sneak in.

Deshaun Watson & Other Top Values

Desahaun Watson is a popular pick already, yet he is sitting at +3400 behind names like Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. After tearing his ACL in 2017, he came back and posted strong numbers. He completed 68.3% of his passes, and had 4,165 passing yards. He kept his interceptions to a minimum, throwing nine, and had 26 passing touchdowns. Watson also rushed for 551 yards and five touchdowns. Having about 4,700 yards of total offense and 31 touchdowns is a very above average year.

What could push Watson into the MVP voting this year is a tick up in passing touchdowns. If he can get a fully healthy year out of Keke Coutee and Will Fuller, there are good odds of that happening. However the odds of them making it through healthy are not as solid. Getting to the 30 touchdown mark will be needed, and tacking on a plus number of touchdowns in the rushing touchdown would be needed as well. We need to be in the 35-40 for a touchdown range minimum. This is doable for Watson.

If Carson Wentz can stay healthy, he is another quarterback with MVP potential. In 2017 he missed three games, and posted 33 touchdowns and 3,296 passing yards. He also had nearly 300 rushing yards. Wentz has a solid play-calling staff around him and plenty of weapons to work with. 16 games will be crucial and he only did that in his rookie season. Philly has a strong offensive line, but the luck has been poor. I have Wentz going for over 4,000 yards and over 30 touchdowns, and there is room for more. The Eagles will be a playoff threat, and the big market also helps his appeal. Wentz comes in at +1100, so he isn’t that far behind from some of the big names. I like him over the Brady and Brees tier.

Honorable Mentions

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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