Should You Bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the 2026 NBA Finals?

By Nate Weitzer | Apr 13, 2026, 2:40pm

It has been seven years since the NBA had a repeat champion. Will the Oklahoma City Thunder snap that streak in June?

The defending champions have been equally dominant this season with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander improving on his MVP campaign by posting even more efficient numbers, offsetting extensive injury absences from Jalen Williams and others.

The Thunder opened the preseason with the shortest odds (+240) to win the title and those odds are down to +130 at some books. So, is early April a good time to place a Futures bet on the Thunder to repeat?

Oklahoma City Thunder to Win Western Conference?

While the Western Conference has long been regarded as stronger than the Eastern Conference, the past two NBA Finals have been quite competitive, with the Thunder scraping past the Indiana Pacers, 4-3, last June, and the Boston Celtics smoking the Dallas Mavericks, 4-1, the previous year.

The Thunder (-125) are favored to win the West and might be worth a wager in that regard rather than assuming they can handle the Eastern Conference representative. The Spurs (+310) are second on odds boards with Victor Wembanyama carrying the team to second place in the standings. The Thunder are still expected to hold the No. 1 seed when the playoffs begin in mid April with an 88% chance to lock that up per the Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probabilities page.

The Spurs are 4-1 this season against the Thunder, including a high-profile win in the NBA Emirates Cup. Yet there is almost no playoff experience on that squad, and it wouldn’t be surprising if San Antonio falls to Denver, Minnesota, or another Western Conference contender before making the WCF finals. The Thunder (-330) is heavily implied to at least reach the conference finals and await an opponent.

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault also has a massive experience edge over Spurs young coach Mitch Johnson, and you can trust his adjustments over a long series to baffle a younger roster. The Thunder has more cards to play in a series with any opponent and are worth backing to win three rounds with home court advantage to return to the Finals.

Best Odds:

Oklahoma City Thunder to Win NBA Finals?

If they can navigate the Western Conference gauntlet again, the Thunder should be well positioned to compete for another title. This team has dealt with injuries to every key player this season, including the reigning MVP, and went 7-2 over their last nine games without SGA.

Chet Holmgren has improved on both ends of the floor this season and Cason Wallace has made a massive leap on offense. The Thunder also added Jared McCain for more bench scoring and injuries have opened more opportunities for Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins.

The biggest question for OKC’s title hopes is whether Jalen Williams can return to peak form. The second-leading scorer for the Thunder last season is averaging 17.3 PPG over 30 appearances at much lower efficiency than his splits from the 2024-25 season. Williams was a non-factor on March 25 in Boston when the Celtics came from behind to beat the Thunder in a potential Finals preview.

Would the Celtics beat the Thunder in a best of 7 series this spring? It would certainly be an intriguing matchup, but few other Eastern Conference contenders should concern long-term Thunder backers. The New York Knicks are 0-6 over their last six matchups with OKC. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 1-6 over their last seven matchups and the Detroit Pistons are playoff neophytes with health questions surrounding their leader, Cade Cunningham.

While the Thunder might have the best chance of any team to win it all this year, as indicated by the odds, placing a Futures wager at +125 or shorter odds is not as profitable as backing a team strategically throughout their playoff run.

Consider deploying that unit on the Thunder after a loss in the postseason when the spread shifts in their favor. Then, let it ride in the next “must-win” spot on the moneyline or with an adjusted spread. Keep backing the Thunder as long as you like the matchup, but betting on them to win the NBA Finals in April isn’t the most strategic move.

Best Odds: Oklahoma City to Win NBA Finals

Photo Credit: AP/Gerald Leong

Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer has been covering sports betting and daily fantasy sports at Catena Media for nearly a decade, focusing primarily on NBA and NFL content. He is the co-host of the NBA and NFL Coast 2 Coast show on the Lineups YouTube channel, where he provides daily picks and prop bets alongside co-host Josh Lander. He also runs the NFL premium content channel at LandYourBets.com. In addition to his duties at Catena, Weitzer is a high school sports reporter for The Boston Globe and a freelance writer for other outlets, covering stories ranging from high school championships to ski mountaineering races. He graduated from Boston University’s MS in Sports Journalism program in 2012.