Ball State Vs. Miami-OH Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/22/22)

Don’t let the allure of rivalry week distract you from the fact that we have more midweek MACtion games for our viewing pleasures. While Michigan and Ohio State battle it out for a Big Ten berth and playoff implications, we get the appetizer of Ball State traveling to Miami-OH in a battle for a bowl opportunity.

Ball State Vs. Miami-OH Odds

With both sitting at 5-6, this is going to be an absolute battle as oddsmakers have it close with Miami-OH opening at -3. Ball State took some money off the key number of +3, now pushing it down to +2.5 as we near kickoff as both units offer similar stylistic advantages.

Speaking of stylistic advantages, this is going to be decided on the defensive end as both defensive units thrive in comparison to their anemic offenses. Oddsmakers agree as they opened the total at 45 and have now dipped to 44 in some books in an expected battle of un-sustained drives.

Ball State Vs. Miami-OH Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Under 45

It’s never settling on the stomach to take a MACtion under but that is exactly what we are doing with the key number of 45 being universally available. This is going to be a defensive slug fest with two above average defenses anchoring down against two anemic offenses over the course of a full game.

With little to no continuity returned this season, the Ball State offense has been about as bad as you could imagine. They are well below average in Off Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and Explosiveness. All metrics that Miami-OH’s defense dwarfs them in, setting up for early outs and stalled out drives for Ball State’s offense.

All is not lost for the Cardinals as the same can be said on the flip side of things. Miami-OH’s offense is just as bad, if not worse, with near bottom of the barrel ranks in Off Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and Havoc. While they are capable of the boom or bust play with a high rate of explosiveness, drives are expected to be ended before in scoring position when they are out on offense.

With both offenses being near the worst in the nation, Havoc plays a more critical role than ever in cashing this under ticket to the window. Limiting field flipping turnovers and fluke scores, live opportunities may come into play should either offense burn us with a bone headed mistake.

Ball State Vs. Miami-OH Key Matchups

How will Ball State limit Aveon Smith’s dual threat ability? Can Paddock limit the offensive Havoc and generate the upset?

Aveon Smith vs Ball State’s linebackers

It’s never easy on the defense in preparing for a dual threat quarterback. It’s especially not easy when that dual threat quarterback is lethal on both ends and that is exactly what Aveon Smith is after leading Miami-OH in both passing and rushing in their last game out against Northern Illinois.

Against the Huskies defense, Aveon Smith threw for 185 yards and one touchdown while rushing for another 105 yards and two touchdowns on 20 attempts. His running will be key as while Ball State fields a great defense, they are susceptible to the run.

If Miami-OH decides to unleash his running once again then this only plays more towards our under. Aveon Smith running wild will keep the clock bleeding while he gains small chunks at a time with Ball State limiting offensive explosiveness. 

Ball State offensive Havoc vs Miami-OH secondary

A consistent starter for Ball State as the only player to record a pass for the Cardinals, they have still yet to find consistent success as we near the end of the season. It seems like every step he took forward was just a step back immediately after with a stat line of 2,606 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. 

With Paddock incapable of sustaining successful passing downs, they have had to rely on stud running back Carson Steele who has been a force in the run game and a valuable combatant against Paddock’s Havoc. He will be heavily featured in the script once again to try and crack this defense.

Verdict

Time to stomach the thought of a MACtion under with both teams having advantages on the defensive end and take this at no lower than 45.