Cincinnati vs. Navy Betting Odds
The #2 ranked Cincinnati Bearcats travel to Annapolis to play the triple-option Midshipmen on Saturday. Given their status as an elite college football team, Cincinnati is laying a ridiculous four touchdowns in this matchup.
However, there’s a good chance they cover this number. The Bearcats have been steamrolling teams, outscoring their last two opponents by a combined 82 points.
Cincinnati will be aiming to drop 50 for the third straight week against a weak Navy defense, which has allowed 30+ points in four straight games.
Cincinnati Bearcats Odds
The Bearcats are an all-around great team. They rank 16th in Offensive Success Rate and 10th in Defensive Success Rate, averaging over seven yards per play while holding their opponents to 4.3.
Desmond Ridder is an elite quarterback, but it’s not unfair to say he’s carried by the ground attack and the defense. Jerome Ford has already compiled over 700 rush yards on the season at over seven yards per carry while adding 12 touchdowns. He grades out as PFF’s fourth-best running back, and he’s doing it all behind an offensive line that ranks 12th in Line Yards.
Meanwhile, the defense grades out as PFF’s second-best. Defensive lineman Curtis Brooks and edge rushers Malik Vann and Myjai Sanders lead the attack up front, having generated 56 quarterback hurries between them. Then, the Bearcats top two cornerbacks – Coby Bryant and Ahmad Gardner – have held opposing quarterbacks to under 50% completion when targeted while producing just one penalty between them.
All-in-all, the Bearcats are allowing less than 170 passing yards per game on just 49% completion. It’s impossible to pick up big passing plays on this defense.
Navy Midshipmen Odds
The triple-option is always a dangerous offensive attack. However, the problem with the Midshipmen is that they don’t run it very well.
They’re averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season while ranking outside the top-100 in both Rushing Success Rate and Standard Downs Success Rate. Navy runs the ball as much as anyone in the nation, but they are inefficient with it.
Meanwhile, the defense can’t stop a nosebleed, allowing over 32 points per game and ranking outside the top 100 in Defensive Success Rate. In fact, Navy’s opponents are rushing for more yards per carry this season than the Midshipmen are.
It’s been a recipe for disaster in Annapolis, and Navy is 1-5 as a result.
Their one win came against UCF, winning 34-30 in a thriller despite being 15-point underdogs. However, it took two fourth-quarter turnovers and 17 fourth-quarter points for them to pull that off. Navy posted a 53% Standard Downs Success Rate in that fourth quarter, likely against an exhausted UCF defense.
Prediction and Pick
My pick: Over 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Cincinnati is bowling over teams, and there’s a high chance they hit this number by themselves.
There’s no resistance in the Navy defense, Riddler and Ford will easily move the ball against this defense. Plus, Navy ranks 75th in Defensive Explosiveness and 103rd in Defensive Points per Opportunity, so the Bearcats should be able to produce some big plays and finish drives with ease.
On the other side, I think Navy could maybe punch in a score or two. If there’s one weakness in the Cincinnati armor, it’s the ground game, wherein they’re allowing a pedestrian 3.5 yards per carry.
Navy’s triple-option attack could potentially throw off the Cincinnati defense, and the Midshipmen could catch the Bearcats off guard for an early score. If Navy gets to 10 points, this total will cruise over.
For some reason, this line continues to move down. It opened at 52 but has been bet down to 48 at some places. If you wanted to bet the under, all the value vanished once it dropped below 50.
Personally, however, I liked the over at 52 and love it even more at 48.5