Cincinnati vs. Tulane: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/30/21)
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Cincinnati vs. Tulane Betting Odds
The 7-0 Bearcats go on the road this week to visit the 1-6 Green Wave. Although the Bearcats are looking like one of the best teams in the country and Tulane looks like a lost cause, this game could be closer than you think.
Cincinnati is coming off a messy 27-20 win over Navy, one of the most pathetic defenses I’ve seen. Meanwhile, we’re not too far away from when Tulane lost by just five to Oklahoma.
It’s going to be tempting to bet the Bearcats in this spot, but are you sure they have the juice to cover the 24.5-point spread?
Let’s dig into this matchup.
Cincinnati Bearcats Odds
There’s no denying how good the Bearcats are.
Cincinnati ranks 15th in Offensive Success Rate and ninth in Defensive Success Rate. They’re 5-2 against the spread (ATS) while scoring 41 points per game and allowing just 14. Desmond Ritter and Jerome Ford have combined for 28 touchdowns and a ton of yards.
The bigger question is: Do the Bearcats deserve their #2 overall ranking?
That’s a tougher question to answer, especially after their pathetic showing against Navy last week. Navy outgained Cincinnati (308 total yards to 271) while gaining more first downs (22 to 14) and winning the time of possession battle (39:27 to 20:33).
Believe it or not, Navy had a 90% postgame win expectancy last week, per College Football Data. The Midshipmen were better in every aspect of the game, except the final score.
But isn’t that a testament to Luke Fickell and the Bearcats? This team managed to pull out a game they absolutely shouldn’t have won, and that means they’ll win games they play better in.
But when you face Alabama, Georgia, or any other top-10 team, those mistakes aren’t so fix-able. If the Bearcats don’t run the table convincingly in conference play, I’m entirely out on the team.
Tulane Green Wave Odds
Not much to be excited about with this Green Wave team.
After their near win over Oklahoma, Tulane has lost and failed to cover in five straight games. They rank 97th in Offensive Success Rate and Defensive Success Rate, allowing over 40 points per game in the process.
Their last game was more salt in the wound, as SMU destroyed the Green Wave to the tune of 55-26. Tulane allowed 612 yards to Tanner Mordecai and Co., and although the Mustangs are one of the more electric offenses in the country, that’s inexcusable.
So, can Tulane bounce back? They have extra time to prepare for this matchup after a Thursday night game, and perhaps they can manage to cover the 24.5-point spread.
Prediction and Pick:
My pick: Tulane +24.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
After laying a complete egg against Navy, I find it hard to believe the Bearcats will bounce back so quickly.
Tulane is not a good football team, but they’re at home for this game and have extra time to prepare. Plus, they’re 5-4 ATS in their last nine matchups with the Bearcats.
Plus, sharp money is all over Tulane in this matchup. At the time of this writing, just 12% of the tickets are on the Green Wave but they’re pulling over 35% of the handle. Plus, I always love fading a public road favorite.
I’ve seen projections for this game that make Tulane 18- to 18.5-point underdogs, and I believe that’s a more apt spread for this game.
While the Bearcats continue their undefeated season, it won’t be in a blowout this Saturday.
