Florida vs. Georgia Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/30/21)
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Georgia vs. Florida Betting Odds
We’ve made it to the annual Florida-Georgia rivalry, with the Bulldogs traveling to Gainesville this Saturday.
This matchup has a little less hype than usual. The #1 Bulldogs are, by far, the best team in the nation, while Florida has been spinning its wheels, most recently losing to a confused LSU team.
The rivalry has been relatively close recently, with Georgia having taken six of the last 10 games. However, Florida walked into Sanford Stadium last year and left with a convincing 44-28 victory.
Things won’t be so easy this time around, as the Bulldogs are favored by almost two touchdowns.
But this game is certainly worth watching, and 100% worth betting.
We just need to see where the value lies.
Georgia Bulldogs Odds
The Bulldogs, as mentioned, are the best team in the country. But that reputation has been built entirely on their defensive prowess.
Through seven undefeated games, the Bulldogs are allowing less than a touchdown per game to their opponents (6.6), easily best in the nation. The Bulldogs’ defense ranks:
- Second in Success Rate
- Fifth in Rush Success Rate
- First in Passing Success Rate
- 10th in Line Yards
- 10th in Pass Rush
- First in Finishing Drives
- First in PFF’s tackling grades
- First in PFF’s coverage grades
It is legitimately impossible to score on this defense. They’ve already played four ranked teams and have allowed a combined 26 points, including three to Clemson and a shutout against Arkansas.
The offense, however, isn’t perfect. They rank well outside the top-50 in Rush Success Rate and J.T. Daniels can be inconsistent, plus he’s on the injury list at the time of this writing (back, probable).
However, if Daniels doesn’t play, Kirby Smart has a very reliable option in Stenson Bennett. He completes almost 70% of his throws and runs the offense with efficiency, but he’s limited in driving the ball downfield. He’s only attempted 12 passes behind 20 yards
But all-in-all, when your offense scores 38 points per game and ranks 13th in Success Rate, Georgia fans aren’t complaining. The only reason for critique is that the unit pales in comparison to the Bulldog defense.
Florida Gators Odds
There’s nothing wrong with the Florida offense.
This unit can move the ball and score a lot of points. Behind an offensive line that’s top-10 in Line Yards, the Gators are 12th in Rush Success Rate and 16th in Standard Downs Success Rate.
Interestingly, Dan Mullins runs with two quarterbacks, generally going with whoever has the hot hand.
Emory Jones has gotten most of the opportunities. While he’s posted a lousy 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he’s also incredibly dangerous with his legs. He’s already accumulated 500 rushing yards this season at 5.8 yards per carry, and that adds up to over 1800 all-purpose yards.
But look out for Freshman Anthony Richardson, who can sling the ball.
Florida redshirt freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson has some of the best tools in college football at the QB position.
The ball just explodes off his hands, he displayed perfect velocity and ball placement on this touchdown throw. pic.twitter.com/WJaJROCrwy
— Luca Sartirana (@SartiranaLuca) October 22, 2021
But impressively, he’s also the team’s second-leading rusher. He’s had just 28 attempts but has accumulated a whopping 348 yards, good for a ridiculous 12.4 yards per carry.
Anthony Richardson has played just 21% of Florida's offensive snaps this season.
He’s still the team's second leading rusher.
Even at 21% of the team’s offensive snaps, AR-15 is on a 12 game pace of 835.2 yards rushing.pic.twitter.com/FxymuZmIfu
— Felix Sharpe l Campus2Canton.com (@sharpereview) October 28, 2021
Either way, the Gators will be fine at quarterback.
The question is if his offensive line can hold him upright. That unit ranks outside the top-50 in Pass Blocking and Havoc allowed, and the Gators as a whole rank just 52nd in Passing Success Rate. Going up against Georgia, that could become problematic.
The defense will almost certainly be problematic, as they’re allowing over 21 points per game and have been the sole reason for the team’s lackluster 4-3 record. The Gators rank 93rd in PFF’s tackling grades and 113th in PFF’s coverage grades.
Florida’s defense ranks 46th in Standard Downs Success Rate and 78th in Passing Downs Success rate. It’s very easy to string together long drives, and Georgia shouldn’t have a problem succeeding with that.
Prediction and Pick
My pick: Over 49.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
There are plenty of ways for points to be scored in this game, but first: It’s imperative to get over to BetMGM and grab this line now.
This total has moved to 51 at almost every other book. I’ve seen projections that make the total about 57.5, and sharp money is hitting the over as we speak. Grab the extra value, now.
However, I’d probably be comfortable playing the over at 51, as well.
The Florida defense is a bit of a mess, and whether it’s Daniels or Stenson under center, the Bulldogs will dominate through the air. Even if the Gators stop the Bulldogs on Standard Downs, they’ll get shredded on passing downs and will never get off the field.
Meanwhile, there aren’t any teams that can produce points against Georgia. However, the Florida offensive line can stand toe-to-toe with the Georgia defensive line in the rush game, and Florida’s two-quarterback look is so unique and dynamic, they might catch the Bulldogs off guard.
I don’t think Florida wins this game, but I think they can get to 20 points. If they do, this game will cruise past 50 points. a
