Georgia State Panthers vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Odds, Picks, Predictions (10/19/22)

The Sun Belt has gone from the nation’s most exciting conference to average. Marshall looks like a corpse after beating Notre Dame. App State has taken a giant step back after beating Texas A&M. Old Dominion hasn’t been bad after beating Virginia Tech but is still just 3-3.

But we bettors can never say no to Wednesday Night Fun Belt Football.

Who has the edge as Georgia State and App State prepare to meet up?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Georgia State Panthers vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Broncos odds, picks, and predictions.

Georgia State Panthers vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Odds

Georgia State is taking the money, as the Panthers opened at +11 at some books and have moved to single digits at many books.

The under is also taking sharp money, moving down one point from the opener of 60.

Georgia State Panthers vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Prediction & Pick

Georgia State has always been a talented run-first team. That will likely never change underneath coach Shawn Elliott, who has led the Panthers to back-to-back Bowl wins.

It all starts at the point of attack. Georgia State has been top 15 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed for a half-decade. The Panthers move the ball no matter who is in the backfield.

Sadly, Georgia State is going up against App State’s top 40 rush defense via Success Rate and top 15 defensive line via Line Yards.

But App State can’t move the ball well either. Despite Chase Brice having one of the best seasons of any Group of Five quarterbacks this year, App State is still relatively inefficient from a Success Rate and EPA standpoint.

In the end, the Panthers can run the ball against anybody. App State is highly ranked in terms of Success Rate but ranks outside the top 100 in Rush EPA per play allowed. Moreover, the Mountaineers are worthless against the pass and in coverage, meaning Darren Grainger could have some success in play-action sets.

Georgia State will find ways to move the ball and play keep away from Brice. That gives a huge advantage to the Panthers when they’re catching double digits. I also like that the sharp money is on our side.

I’ll be on the Panthers.

Georgia State Panthers vs Appalachian State Mountaineers Key Matchups

Key Matchup: Georgia State’s Offensive Line vs App State’s Defensive Line

This is an elite offensive line against an elite defensive line.

Georgia State needs to move the ball. But the Panthers also play with pace, ranking top 25 in seconds per play. If the offensive line doesn’t get a push, it will lead to plenty of quick three and outs which will give Brice plenty of time to cook.

Whichever team is better in the trenches will cover the 10-point spread.