Michigan vs. Wisconsin: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/2/21)

Michigan vs. Wisconsin Betting Odds

The Wolverines were rolling entering Big Ten play, but they struggled mightily in the second half against Rutgers. The Wolverine rush attack is perhaps the best in the nation, but if anyone can stop it, it’s the Badgers.

But the Badgers’ defense isn’t the issue. Instead, the offense literally can’t move forward. Graham Mertz hasn’t had an all-star career at Wisconsin, but he’s having the worst season of his career through four weeks.

However, Wisconsin has had the hardest strength of schedule of any FBS team so far, per PFF. And they’re 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games against Michigan. So, perhaps things are looking up in Madison.

But does that mean they can beat the Wolverines this week? The market seems to think so, as the Badgers opened as one-point underdogs but have since moved to 2.5-point favorites.

However, I’m not so sure.

Michigan Wolverines Odds

 Through the first three weeks, the Wolverines had rushed for 1051 yards, just over 350 yards per game. Blake Corum, Hassan Haskins, and the experienced offensive line ran through, around, and over their non-conference opposition.

However, Rutgers managed to bottle them up – at least in the second half. Michigan entered the half leading 20-3 and having outgained the opposition by over 100 yards. But in the second half, Michigan was held to 42 total yards with an 18.5% Offense Success Rate (25% below the national average) while Rutgers gained 150 yards on the ground alone.

Meanwhile, Corum had entered last Saturday averaging 7.7 yards per carry, but he averaged just 3.2 in the game.

This was a surprise, considering the strength of the Rutgers defense is the secondary. However, this was the most formidable defensive line the Wolverines had faced this season. And while Corum is still PFF’s highest-graded Power Five running back, the offensive line hasn’t graded out as high.

Michigan brought back four of its five offensive linemen from last season. But they rank just 46th in Offensive Line Yards and Michigan grades out as just the 33rd best Run Blocking team in FBS, per PFF. The backfield is often dependent on the big men up front, and it’s worth questioning how much weight Corum and Haskins can carry.

Michigan rushes at the fourth-highest rate in the nation (73.7% of the time), so we haven’t seen much of quarterback Cade McNamara yet. However, he’s been good when he’s had to throw, completing over 62% of his passes for over 10 yards per attempt. He grades out as PFF’s 22nd best college quarterback, wherein he’s recorded four Big Time Throws, had zero Turnover Worthy Plays, and has yet to take a sack.

Plus, McNamara’s done it all without his top weapon in Ronnie Bell, who’s out for the season.

The defense has been good so far, allowing the fourth-fewest points per game in the FBS (11.8) while grading out as PFF’s sixth-best defense. While they’ve kept points off the board, they’ve struggled with efficiency (perhaps in a bend-don’t-break fashion). They rank just 49th in Defense Success Rate and 82nd in Defense Havoc, and Rutgers had a 70% Offense Success Rate in the third quarter last Saturday (43% national average).

In this matchup, keep your eye on Aidan Hutchinson. He’s the most well-rounded edge rusher in the country right now and is PFF’s highest-graded Power Five edge defender.

Wolverine Badgers Odds

This is an elite defense.

Despite playing Top 25 teams like Penn State and Notre Dame, the Badgers currently rank:

• 3rd in Defense Success Rate
• 7th in Defense Stuff Rate
• 2nd in Defense Line Yards
• 13th in Defense Havoc
• 6th in Defense Rush Success Rate
• 13th in Defense Pass Success Rate

Despite allowing 41 points to Notre Dame – including 31 in the fourth quarter – the defense played great. They held Notre Dame to three total rushing yards, stuffing them at a 42% rate (17% national average). Jack Coan and Drew Pyne managed 239 yards through the air, but not without getting sacked eight total times.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Anthony/status/1441855581363609603

But we don’t have to question Wisconsin’s defense. Instead, the offense is a disaster. Notre Dame’s 41 points become easier to understand when you see the Badger offense turned the ball over five times.

Most of those issues fall squarely on Graham Mertz’s shoulders. Mertz completed just 18 of his 41 passes against Notre Dame for 240 yards, a touchdown, and four interceptions.

But the issues go deeper than that. Of 146 quarterbacks that have dropped back at least 47 times, Mertz grades out as the ninth-worst quarterback, per PFF. He’s completed just 56% of his passes for 3.3 adjusted yards per attempt, and he’s made just four Big Time Throws to nine Turnover Worthy plays.

Meanwhile, the offensive line and rush attack have been just average. All-in-all, this offense stinks, ranking dead last in the FBS in Offense Explosiveness.

Prediction and Pick

My Pick: Michigan +2.5, lean under 43.5

When Wisconsin was a 2.5-point home underdog, the Badgers were worth a look. However, as short home favorites, they’ve lost any value they may have had.

If Mertz walks onto the field Saturday at noon as the Badgers starting quarterback, there is no way I’m backing the Badgers in this spot.

Meanwhile, even if the Michigan rush attack can’t get going, I believe in McNamara and the passing attack to put up enough points to win this game – or at least cover the small spread.

43.5 is such a low number, but the Wolverine offense slowed considerably in the second half last week. Meanwhile, we know Wisconsin will lean on their defense. The last three games between these two have gone over, but all those two numbers were considerably higher than this one.

I like the under in this spot but don’t love it.