Nebraska vs Michigan State: Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions (9/25/21)

Nebraska vs. Michigan State Betting Odds 

Following some offseason embarrassment and a terrible Week 0 loss to Illinois – one in which they were 6.5-point favorites – it looked like Scott Frost was on his way out.

However, Frost and the Nebraska offense have responded with vigor. They’ve covered in three straight games and kept it very close with Oklahoma last week. This program seems to be on the up-and-up.

This week, they’ll take on a Michigan State squad that just destroyed Miami as seven-point underdogs. Sparty can start their season 4-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) if they win at home here in Week 4.

Both these teams are building momentum, but who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in and find the most profitable betting angle.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Odds

Adrian Martinez is out for revenge.

After completing just 50% of his passes in Week 0, he’s now 65-for-99 on the season for 10.2 yards per attempt and five touchdowns. Plus, he’s added a whopping 290 yards on the ground at 5.7 yards per carry.

He was near-immaculate against Oklahoma. Martinez went 19-for-25 for 289 yards and a touchdown, good for over 11 yards per attempt. Sadly, he added just 34 yards on the ground and threw an interception, so the Cornhuskers fell short.

But the defense made up for it. They held Spencer Rattler to just 6.3 yards per attempt, as he managed just 210 yards at a touchdown through the air. Unfortunately, Oklahoma also rushed for almost 200 yards, negating any progress the secondary made.

Either way, the Cornhuskers lost by just seven as 22.5-point favorites. Nebraska is looking much better in recent weeks, and I don’t think Frost is coaching for his job anymore.

Michigan State Spartans Odds

Miami managed to out-gain Michigan State on the back of D’Eriq King’s 388 passing yards, but their four turnovers were too much for them to overcome.

Meanwhile, Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III rushed for 172 yards at over six yards per carry, and Sparty came away with a huge underdog victory.

Going forward, look for Michigan State to continue bullying teams on the ground. Walker is up to 500 yards rushing this season and is still well over eight yards per carry. The Spartans currently pace the nation in Rushing Success Rate.

But Walker is the sole reason for that success. The offensive line has performed almost identical to how they performed last season, and a whopping 158 of Walker’s 172 rushing yards came outside the tackles last week.

Also: 158 of Walker’s 172 rushing yards came outside the tackles. Between the tackles, Miami held him to 14 yards on 12 carries. Think that was the point Diaz was trying to make.

But Miami also missed 30 total tackles in this game. Walker was responsible for 20 of them. So. https://t.co/2gkq3Vafbd

— Colton Pouncy (@colton_pouncy) September 20, 2021

But if Walker has to carry Sparty to wins, so be it.

Mel Tucker’s squad has been stout up front, holding opponents to just 3.1 yards per carry through the first three games. The secondary was questionable against Miami, but they held the fairly mobile King to just seven yards rushing.

That’s going to be important in this game, considering the damage Martinez can do on the ground.

Prediction and Pick 

My pick: Nebraska +5

Michigan State opened at -3.5 but has since been bet to -5. However, I think it’s time to buy back on the Cornhuskers.

Michigan State is coming off an emotional win against Miami, and their stock has never been higher. As such, we should sell that stock, because Sparty shouldn’t be laying five points against Nebraska. In fact, I think this line should be closer to Nebraska +2.

The Cornhusker defense has film on how to stop Walker, and it’s by keeping him within the tackles. I’m expecting Frost to game plan accordingly, and they should mitigate the Michigan State ground game.

Meanwhile, the Spartans won’t be able to stop Martinez without forcing another four turnovers. Turnover luck runs out quickly, and Nebraska has been solid at avoiding them so far this season.

I love Nebraska and the points in this spot.