Ohio State vs. Rutgers: Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions (10/2/21)

Ohio State vs. Rutgers Betting Odds

Ohio State visits Rutgers this weekend after dominating Akron. However, fans aren’t super happy with Ryan Day and the Buckeyes so far, as the team has largely underperformed despite their 3-1 record.

Meanwhile, Greg Schiano has Rutgers looking very good. They are coming off a loss to Michigan, but they overpowered the Wolverines in the second half and have moved to 4-0 against the spread (ATS).

These two have played seven times since 2014, with Ohio State going undefeated during that time. Although the Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS vs. Rutgers in those games, Rutgers has covered the spread in the two most recent meetings.

With so much on the line for Coach Day, do the Buckeyes have enough firepower to cover the 15.5-point spread? Let’s dive in and find the best betting angle for this Saturday afternoon matchup.

Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

Ohio State managed to cover last week against Akron, but it wasn’t without some spread drama.

🚨BRUTAL BAD BEAT🚨

This catch would’ve cashed Akron +48.5 and the over 66.5 https://t.co/POyXtcGSBN

— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) September 26, 2021

That catch would’ve cashed Akron +48.5, and the Buckeyes would’ve moved to 0-4 ATS this season.

While Ohio State ranks 34th in Defense Rush Success Rate, the rush defense looks abysmal in Columbus. Minnesota’s Mohamad Ibrahim was destroying the Buckeye front seven in Week 0, to the tune of 5.4 yards per carry before he got hurt. Then, Oregon shredded the Buckeye’s through the ground, compiling 269 rush yards at over seven yards per carry.

But thank goodness for C.J. Stroud and the Buckeye offense. Ohio State currently ranks eighth in FBS in points per game (43.2), with Stroud completing 62.4% of his passes for over nine yards per attempt. There isn’t a more talented receiving corps in the nation, either.

The Buckeyes ground attack has been just as good. They’re averaging over 220 yards per game on the ground at almost seven yards per carry. Ohio State has a running back by committee approach, with three backs at over 150 yards through four games. TreVeyon Henderson paces the team in attempts (46), yards (439), and yards per carry (9.5), and he’s added on six touchdowns for good measure.

The Buckeyes offensive line makes all the magic happen. Not only does Ohio State rank seventh in Offensive Line Yards, but they also are getting stuffed at the 10th lowest rate in the country. The big boys are making the backfield’s job much easier.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Odds

Rutgers almost pulled off the upset victory last week, coming within one score of beating Michigan as 20-point favorites. But we should dive a little deeper into that game.

After getting obliterated out of the gates, trailing 20-3 at the half, the Scarlet Knights flipped the script. Michigan outgained Rutgers by 112 yards in the first 30 minutes, but Rutgers held Michigan to just 42 yards through the final two frames. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights finished with 196 yards rushing after gaining only 40 in the first half.

Rutgers outscored Michigan 10-0 in the second half but had trouble finishing drives. They missed a second-half field goal and fumbled on their final comeback drive of the game.

However, this was a momentum-building loss. Rutgers out-gained Michigan 352 yards to 275, and they won the time of possession battle 33 minutes to 27. Rutgers also managed 21 first downs to Michigan’s 15, and the Scarlet Knights finished the game 7-for-16 on third down.

They also managed to stop the Wolverine’s dominant rushing attack. Michigan entered Saturday having rushed for over 350 yards per game, and they left that game with just 112 yards on the ground at only 2.9 yards per carry.

I certainly didn’t expect that, considering that the strength of Rutgers defense is their secondary. Rutgers still ranks among the top five FBS teams in Defense Passing Success Rate and the top 20 teams in Defense Havoc.

All-in-all, Rutgers is undefeated ATS on the season and things are looking up for Greg Schiano and Co.

Prediction and Pick 

My Pick: Rutgers +15.5

I’ll never pass up a home underdog, especially the 2021 Scarlet Knights.

Ohio State probably wins this game, but not without a fight. Ohio State’s rush defense is abysmal, and Rutgers is getting stuffed at the fourth-lowest rate in the nation. Meanwhile, the Rutgers defense could cause some issues for C.J. Stroud and the Buckeye air attack.

Therefore, I have a feeling Rutgers controls the time of possession, which would be a massive ATS advantage for a 15.5-point underdog.

Rutgers proved they could hang as big underdogs last week, and I think they move to 5-0 ATS this week. Look for Rutgers to get their third straight cover against Ohio State, while the Buckeyes fall to 1-4 ATS on the season.