Oklahoma vs. Kansas kicks off Saturday at noon EST in Lawrence, Kansas. Oklahoma is currently a -9.5 favorite and -345 on the moneyline while the total is set at 65.5. Read on for more Oklahoma vs. Kansas best bets and predictions as Oklahoma serves as a valuable moneyline parlay piece.
Oklahoma Sooners Vs. Kansas Jayhawks Prediction & Best Bet
It wasn’t pretty, but a win is a win at the end of the day and that is exactly what Oklahoma can hang its hat on after a narrow victory in their last game out against UCF. The Sooners offense continued to successfully move the ball down the field, yet their defense took the day off as they routinely allowed UCF to keep it close. A curious result, and one that is worth monitoring as they take on a high-powered Kansas offense.
Kansas is currently dealing with an injury situation at the most important position as Jalon Daniels is enduring back tightness. If he plays, he he will not be 100%. This has been a lingering injury all season. Jason Bean is the backup, playing as more of a pure passer than a dual threat, like Daniels.
Whether it’s Bean or Daniels, it’s tough to envision Kansas being able to continue its high-powered assault as the Oklahoma defense has taken massive strides in production. The Sooners defense currently ranks 17th in Def Success Rate, ninth in Def Points per Opportunity and 20th in Havoc. Defending Explosiveness has been an issue, but the Jayhawks offense leans toward Success Rate rather than connecting on the big play.
Worse yet for the Jayhawks, their defense still mightily struggles as an underwhelming unit. They were near dead last in some defensive metrics this year, now sitting at 117th in Def Success Rate, 124th in Def Points per Opportunity and 80th in Def Explosiveness. It’s not just in one major area either as opposing offenses have thrived in both the pass and ground attack.
Under Dillon Gabriel, the Sooners pass attack ranks fifth in Pass PPA and fourth in Pass Success Rate. Gabriel excels at picking apart opposing coverage for minimal gains, constantly moving the sticks while driving the ball down the field. While Oklahoma is in a position to run the table, take the added security of pairing its moneyline with the likes of Oregon in a moneyline parlay. Especially with their defense regressing in a sleepy spot, potentially allowing Kansas to get the backdoor cover.
Oklahoma Sooners Vs. Kansas Jayhawks Prediction & Best Bet: Oklahoma Moneyline Parlay Piece
Oklahoma Sooners Vs. Kansas Jayhawks Best Betting Odds
Even with clear advantages on both sides of the field, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations of a blowout and opened the Sooners as a -10 favorite. Bettors believe that number opened too high, backing the Jayhawks down to +9 in some shops. This is in correlation to Jalon Daniels potentially being able to play, yet expectations should be tempered as his nagging back issue may dip into his production.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a rapid pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 65.5. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the total, keeping the number the same since the opener. It’s tough to attack this market not fully knowing what to expect out of Kansas and their injury situation at quarterback, being too much of a wild card in relation to doing their part towards the total.
Oklahoma Sooners Vs. Kansas Jayhawks Key Matchups
Can Marcus Major continue to find rush success against the Jayhawks front seven?
Marcus Major vs. Kansas Front Seven
While all eyes are on potential Heisman winner Dillon Gabriel and the Oklahoma pass attack, the Sooners ground game plays just an integral part to their offensive success. With Tawee Walker listed as questionable, Marcus Major will be expected to carry a brunt of the rush attempts as their lead back.
The Marcus Major touchdown to seal the deal last night was sweeeeet
Scoop a bit of a low throw, make a defender miss terribly, then house it
— Josh Callaway (@JoshMCallaway) September 10, 2023
Major will be in a great position to succeed as the Jayhawks currently rank 94th in Def Rush Success Rate, 125th in Def Rush PPA, and 126th in Def Rush Explosiveness. The contrast in Success Rate is especially vital as the Sooners rank 30th in Rush Success Rate, meaning Major will routinely cut the distance to gain in half to help put the rest of the offense in a better position to keep moving the sticks.