Oregon vs. Washington kicks off Friday (12/01/23) at 8 p.m. EST in Las Vegas as the host site for the Pac 12 Conference Championship. Get Oregon vs. Washington predictions and best bets below. Our best bet is on Washington team total under 28.5 as points should come at a premium against this Oregon defense.
Oregon vs. Washington Prediction
It’s a highly anticipated rematch from one of the games of the year when Washington put together a last-minute drive and beat the Oregon Ducks 36-33. The spread was much tighter in that contest than it is now, pegging this as Oregon’s game to lose as they look to get their revenge.
Oddsmakers don’t think that this is just Oregon’s game to lose, but to win in dominant fashion as they are as high as a -9.5 favorite. The Ducks certainly have the tools to do so, possessing a defense that is more than capable of slowing down the Huskies while taking advantage of their weak defense as well. It wasn’t until the game after their win against Oregon where teams started to figure out how to slow down this Washington offense. Arizona State gave everyone the blueprint for the rest of the year.
That blueprint is to drop their linebackers back in coverage in an effort to spread out across the field, smothering the passing lanes against the short throw. That is where Michael Penix has backed his success, ranking sixth in Pass Success Rate. This bodes especially well for an Oregon squad that can afford to rush just three or four defensive linemen, boasting an elite defensive front without sacrificing too much defensive production in the trenches.
The extra bodies in coverage will help boost a defense that already ranks 14th in Def Pass Success Rate, potentially leading to more stalled Washington drives and early outs. When forcing the Huskies offense off the field, the Oregon offense will be in a good position to sit on the ball and control the pace of play. That’s especially the case on the ground, where the Ducks have a massive advantage. They rank second in Rush Success Rate and PPA.
That is a stark contrast to where Washington ranks on the defensive end, checking in at 129th in Def Rush Success Rate and 128th in Def Rush PPA. That puts Washington’s defense in a brutal position as selling out to defend the run by stacking the box will only hurt them. When stacked, that exposes the Huskies coverage outside the numbers which gives Bo Nix the chance to move the sticks through the air with high-quality passing lanes for him to throw. By prolonging their drives, Washington’s scoring opportunities diminish which plays towards their team total under.
Oregon vs. Washington Prediction: Washington TT u28.5
Oregon vs. Washington Best Odds
Even with Washington winning their initial matchup against the Ducks, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations of them to do it again by opening the Huskies as a +7.5 underdog. Bettors are in the same belief, backing the Ducks up to as high as -9.5. That’s a drastic difference from their initial contest for Oregon, closing as a +3 in their first matchup.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a lightning-quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 68.5. Bettors believe that number was a tad too high, backing the under down to 66.5 as of writing. The total movement correlates with the Oregon steam as their defense is in a position to slow down the Huskies while facing no resistance on the other end.
Oregon vs. Washington Key Matchups
Can Oregon slow down Washington running back Dillon Johnson?
Dillon Johnson vs. Oregon’s Front Seven
Michael Penix Jr has dominated the headlines when talking about the Washington offense, but it is their ground game that has helped propel this unit as of late. That is in large part the emergence of Dillon Johnson, leading the Huskies to a top-25 rank in Rush Success Rate and PPA.
Dillon Johnson plows his way into the end zone! 😤 pic.twitter.com/Kz4d7C4EhP
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) November 25, 2023
His rushing production may come to a halt against an Oregon front seven who ranks 33rd in Def Rush Success Rate and 32nd in Def Rush PPA. Especially with their linebackers anchored in the middle, getting the chance to crash down and contain Johnson before he hits the open field. He may find success in the mid field, but yards will be tough to come by as the field shortens and the defense stacks when they near the red zone.