TCU Vs. Georgia Odds, Picks, Predictions (1/9/23) CFB National Championship

All the blood, sweat, tears, and preparation has come down to this. The National Championship. In one corner we have the reigning, defending champions in the Georgia Bulldogs. In the other corner, we have the Cinderella story that is the TCU Horned Frogs who started the season with 200-1 odds to win it all. Both are coming off of absolute thrillers in what was the greatest semifinals performances of all time. Can TCU cap off their magical run with a massive upset for the title?

TCU Vs. Georgia Odds

Oddsmakers don’t think so as they opened the Horned Frogs as a +14 underdog. Bettors on the other hand have a lot higher expectations, backing TCU down to as low as +12.5 in some shops. With projections having them around +10, I assume this spread continues to tick lower as we near kickoff. TCU has the offensive capabilities to find success against this Georgia defense, a defense that is eerily similar to Michigan.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored in a flash between both units with oddsmakers opening the total at 61.5. Bettors are in agreement, taking the over up a point to 62.5. This comes as no surprise after the offensive display we saw from both units in their semifinal’s performances. TCU has been one of the most explosive units in football through the air while Georgia is an all-around offensive juggernaut.

TCU Vs. Georgia Prediction & Pick

The Pick: TCU +13

Listen, I was wrong. I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again. TCU just didn’t beat Michigan. They thoroughly dominated them for a majority of the game before a topsy-turvy ending that made it closer than it appeared. The Horned Frogs checked every box that was needed to be witnessed for me to believe they can contend against Georgia. With that being said, I am backing the Horned Frogs at no lower than +13. 

The TCU offense captained by Max Duggan can put up points in a flash and expose any defense. While they were knacked for doing it against lesser competition in the Big 12, their production didn’t skip a beat as they tore apart the Michigan defense. A defense that was labeled as one of the best defensive units in the league. The Duggan and Quintez Johnston connection is one of the most lethal attacks in football with Johnston finishing the game with 163 yards and one touchdown.

They now get a Georgia defense that will have a size advantage just like Michigan did. Georgia doesn’t come without flaws, and one of them is the key metric to TCU’s potential success. While normally known for fielding one of the most ferocious defensive lines, you would be shocked to see that Georgia ranked well below average in Def Pass Rush. Failing to get to the mobile Max Duggan may spell disaster for the Bulldogs after what we just witnessed CJ Stroud do to them with his legs.

The injury status of stud TCU running back Kendre Miller is worrisome after not being able to return to the game. As of now he is listed as questionable, but it looks bleak. TCU loses a dynamic player in their backfield, but his backup Emari Demercado handled himself very well by rushing for 150 yards and one touchdown on 17 attempts.

TCU Vs. Georgia Key Matchups

Georgia struggled to move the ball against an eerily similar defense in Missouri, can TCU replicate that same success?

TCU 3-3-5 defense vs UGA pass attack

One of the biggest turnarounds that catapulted the Horned Frogs into serious title contenders was their change in defensive scheme. The hiring of defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie and his 3-3-5 defense was one of the biggest reasons that I backed them on a season win total over and a Big 12 title piece.

While it took a bit for TCU to get accustomed to it, they fired on all cylinders with an impressive performance against Michigan. While most people thought Michigan would easily run right over them with a size advantage from their line into the second level, the speed of TCU was more than enough to fill the gaps and limit the rush success.

This is also a defense that Georgia struggled to figure out early in the year when they went against Missouri. Not necessarily a 3-3-5, but Missouri threw out odd man looks with a 3-4 on early downs. When it came to third down attempts, Missouri would keep the same look but send more pressure with blitz packages that proved to be successful. TCU will most likely mimic the same identity that may give Georgia’s offense fits once again.

Verdict

With TCU’s offense being able to contend against anyone, while also fielding a defense that can slow down Georgia, I will back them on the spread at no lower than +13. Go Horned Frogs.