Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Odds, Picks, Predictions (10/22/22)

Both Texas and Oklahoma State were featured in close games last week. The Longhorns managed a boring 24-21 victory over Iowa State, while the Pokes lost a thrilling 43-40 game to TCU.

These two are a combined 10-3 this season, and a loss for either team likely eliminates them from Big 12 Championship contention. The stakes are high in Stillwater on Saturday.

Which team has the edge?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys odds, picks, and predictions.

Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Odds

The Longhorns are a surprising 6.5-point road favorite over Oklahoma State. A line that shocked most bettors when it opened. While Quinn Ewers looks good, this line seems crazy.

Is it a trap line?

There are some Spencer Sanders injury concerns, as he’s nursing a hurt shoulder. But I doubt that has a big effect.

The total seems low at 60.5, but the under is taking the sharp money.

We need to dissect this matchup a bit further.

Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction & Pick

There are advantages for Texas.

Texas is an elite rush defense squaring up against a poor rushing team. Oklahoma State is a little weak and inexperienced on the offensive line, and Steve Sarkisian’s defensive line should be prepared to take advantage.

Plus, Oklahoma State is weaker against the run and is getting ready to square off against the All-American running back Bijan Robinson. OKST also has some issues preventing explosive plays, and Ewers will have no issue exploiting that.

These are probably the main reasons Texas is laying a touchdown against the Pokes.

But this is too many points. I’d make this line Texas -1 as long as Sanders is fully healthy, and that line maybe jumps three points with Sanders hurt.

Oklahoma State isn’t perfect, but they are still a good Big 12 team that just took the best offensive team in the country (TCU) down to the wire. The Pokes are still strong in the front seven and are one of the best red-zone offenses in the country.

Meanwhile, Texas almost dropped a game to Iowa State last week. We think Ewers is good, but he hasn’t proven himself as Sanders has.

This feels like a trap line, but I’m going to take the bait. Mike Gundy is still one of the best ATS coaches in college football history, and I’m ready to back him one more time.

Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Key Matchups

Key Matchup: Texas’ Open Field Offense vs Oklahoma State’s Open Field Defense

Oklahoma State ranks 70th in PFF’s Tackling grades, 60th in PFF’s Coverage grades, and 83rd in preventing Explosive plays.

These are the holes in Oklahoma State’s defense that could ruin an underdog bet or a bet on the under. It’s what lost them in the game against TCU last week.

Gundy needs to tighten down the hatches in these areas if he wants to cover or win this game.