Toledo vs. Bowling Green kicks off Tuesday (11/14/23) at 7 p.m. EST in Bowling Green, Ohio as a home game for the Falcons. Get Toledo vs. Bowling Green predictions and best bets below. Our best bet is on Toledo -9.5 in what should be a dominant win for the Rockets.
Toledo vs. Bowling Green Prediction
It’s that time of year where motivation starts to play an even bigger factor as this game serves as a prime example. Toledo has now punched its ticket to the MAC Conference Championship while Bowling Green still has a puncher’s chance of winning its division. The Falcons need some help in the form of Miami (OH) and Ohio losing. Can they generate the upset against Toledo? Most likely not.
Toledo is elite on both sides of the ball and the harsh reality is that Bowling Green does not have enough firepower to keep within scoring pace. Especially with the Falcons offense lacking consistency, playing as a boom or bust type of unit. Their metrics back this up as they rank 108th in Off Success Rate and 24th in Off Explosiveness. That spells potential doom against a Rockets defense that ranks 36th in Def Success Rate and 26th in Def Explosiveness.
With the Rockets not letting anything behind their back end, that forces the Falcons to try and beat them in the short game to potentially no success. Even when factoring in the Rockets weakness with defending the ground, it matches up the same as the overall metrics. Bowling Green ranks 25th in Rush Explosiveness, yet 86th in Rush Success Rate and 92nd in Rush PPA. That plays right into the Toledo front seven’s hands as they check in at 47th in Def Rush Explosiveness and 81st in Def Rush Success Rate.
Worse yet for the Falcons, success through the air will practically be impossible to come by as Toledo’s secondary grades out as very elite. Toledo ranks 13th in Def Pass Success Rate, 14th in Def Pass PPA and 52nd in Def Pass Explosiveness. Like their ground game, the Falcons mirror the same with a high explosiveness mark and well-below-average Success Rate and PPA metrics. Disruptions may be routine through the air as well, ranking 127th in Havoc Allowed in comparison to Toledo clocking in at 24th.
That brings an uptick in potential turnover-worthy plays in the Rockets’ favor, flipping the field with a back breaking interception or early outs with batted balls through the air and tackles for loss. Factoring in a Rockets offense with massive advantages across the board in Success Rate and Points per Opportunity, as well as the potential extra possessions from their defense, Toledo will be in a great position to set a scoring pace too fast for the Falcons to keep up with.
Toledo vs. Bowling Green Prediction: Toledo -9.5
Toledo vs. Bowling Green Best Betting Odds
Even with a potential lack of motivation, oddsmakers still believe this is a potential easy Toledo win as they opened the Rockets as a -7 favorite. Bettors are echoing that same belief, backing the Rockets up to -10 as of writing. Some books are still hanging a -9.5 as of writing, playing right under the key number of -10 and being the difference of a win or a push.
As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a moderate pace as they opened the number at 44.5. Bettors believe that was a drastically low total, backing the over up to as high as 52 in some shops. That is a drastic difference from the opener, potentially giving some value to the under should it continue to climb higher as the Falcons should struggle to score throughout most of the contest.
Toledo vs. Bowling Green Key Matchups
Can Dequan Finn continue to excel against the Falcons pass coverage?
Dequan Finn vs. Bowling Green Secondary
Even with Toledo calling one of the lowest pass-play rates in the nation, ranking 125th in Pass Play Rate, they are still elite in that regard when they do so. They currently rank 14th in Pass Success Rate, seventh in Pass PPA and 23rd in Pass Explosiveness.
— CFB Saturday Slate w/ Mick N Bus (@CFB_SatSlate) November 9, 2023
Dequan Finn is coming off a 407 passing yard, three touchdown, and one interception performance in his last game against Eastern Michigan, now poised to shred Bowling Green’s secondary. As of writing, the Falcons back end currently ranks 80th in Def Pass PPA and 115th in Def Pass Explosiveness, giving the potential for big gains through the air all game long.