Western Kentucky vs. Michigan State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/2/21)
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Western Kentucky vs. Michigan State Betting Odds
Following their tight victory over Nebraska, Michigan State will host Bailey Zappe and the Hilltoppers in this non-conference matchup.
This is a battle between two different styles of play. Michigan State relies on their rushing game, with Kenneth Walker III carrying Michigan State on his back. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky passes at the second-highest rate in the nation (69.3%), trailing only Mike Leach and Mississippi State.
While Western Kentucky is just 1-2, they covered as six-point underdogs against Army and then easily covered as 9.5-point underdogs against Indiana. So, Western Kentucky finds itself undefeated against the spread (ATS) this season.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is a perfect 4-0 through Week 4. However, they suffered their first ATS loss last weekend, but the No. 17 ranked Spartans couldn’t care less.
So, as 10.5-point road underdogs, do we back Zappe and the ‘Toppers to cover the number again? Or will Michigan State roll over Western Kentucky at home in Week 5?
Let’s dive into this matchup and find the most profitable betting angle.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Odds
This offense is electric. Zappe has already thrown for 13 touchdowns and 1200 yards through three games, and he’s second among FBS quarterbacks in yards per game. While Western Kentucky ranks top five in Passing Success Rate, Zappe’s strength is throwing the deep ball:
Bailey Zappe with a dime for Western Kentucky 🎯
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 3, 2021
Among qualified quarterbacks, Zappe has the highest adjusted completion percentage on throws 20+ yards downfield (73.7%). He’s completed 14 of those deep passes, which ranks fifth in FBS, and has the sixth-highest PFF grade on those throws.
Zappe just knows where to go with the ball. 10 Hilltoppers have multiple receptions in the young season, but Jerreth Sterns (15.7 yards/reception) and Mitchell Tinsley (15.6 yards/reception) are doing the most damage downfield.
Between quarterback Usage and Predicted Points Added per play, Zappe has been arguably the most efficient college quarterback this season:
Image Credit: CollegeFootballData
The Hilltoppers rank top 20 in plays per minute and Finishing Drives, so this offense can put up a whole lot of points. Their 41.7 points per game rank 14th in the FBS.
The defense, however, is abysmal. They rank outside the top 100 in Defense Success Rate, Defensive Line Yards, and points per game allowed (30.7).
But so far, this Hilltopper team has done just fine on the back of Zappe.
Michigan State Spartans Odds
Through these four games, Michigan State is rushing for over 215 yards per game at almost six yards per carry. They rank top 15 in Line Yards and Rush Success Rate, but Walker deserves almost all the credit:
Kenneth Walker is unreal pic.twitter.com/rvqJpW6nND
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 21, 2021
Walker grades out at 15th among qualified running backs per PFF, but he paces the FBS in rushes of 10 yards or more and is ninth in YAC per attempt (5.62). He’s quick, agile, and can bowl through any defender in front of him.
Walker must continue to dominate on the ground because this offense is average without him. Before Walker arrived from Wake Forest, Michigan State spent three straight seasons with rushing attacks ranking in the 120s.
Plus, quarterback Payton Thorne isn’t doing anything special. Although he has completed 62% of his passes and posted a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he grades out as PFF’s 65th-best college quarterback. However, he has made six Big Time Throws to just one Turnover Worthy Play, so he’s helping more than he’s hurting.
In terms of efficiency, Michigan state ranks anywhere from 60th to 75th in most defensive metrics. However, PFF does grade their Pass Rush at 16th and their Pass Coverage at 24th, so I’d be careful against them in the passing game.
Prediction and Pick
My Pick: Western Kentucky +10.5
But Michigan State still ranks 106th in pass yards allowed per game. While the Spartans’ PFF grades check out, this Hilltoppers offense combines efficiency and explosiveness unlike any other FBS team in the nation. So, look out above for Zappe to Sterns.
Moreover, Sparty is just 7-15 ATS vs. non-conference opponents since 2015, a stat that ranks dead last in the FBS during that stretch. The Spartans just picked up a close, emotional victory over Nebraska last week and travel to Rutgers next week – otherwise known as a sandwich spot.
After Western Kentucky’s fiery start to the season, Michigan State shouldn’t be laying double digits in this spot. I love the Hilltoppers to cover and move to 5-0 ATS on the season, plus I might even sprinkle a little on their ML.
